Severe Thunderstorm Warning 539, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
830 PM CST MON NOV 22 1999

WILL SOON UPDATE PRIMARILY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EXPIRED WATCH OVER
OSAGE AND PAWNEE COUNTIES.  LOOKS LIKE THE WIND PROFILE IS CURRENTLY
ABOUT AS FAVORABLE AS IT WILL GET FOR SEVERE WEATHER.  PROFILERS
SHOW MID-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEGUN VEERING WITH THE IMPENDING PASSAGE
OF THE SHORTWAVE...AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DRY PUNCH AT THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS WORKING INTO ERN OK.  THIS IS ALL CONTRIBUTING TO
THE INCREASE IN BOW ECHOES ALONG THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS.  AS THE
STRONGEST SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS WORK INTO WEST CENTRAL MO...LOW
LEVEL WINDS IN ERN OK/NW AR SHOULD START TO VEER AND LEAD TO LESS
LOW-LEVEL INFLOW AND STORM RELATIVE HELICITY.  THERE WILL STILL BE A
GOOD DEAL OF SPEED SHEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO THE MAIN THREAT WILL
SHIFT FROM TORNADOES TO DAMAGING WINDS BEFORE MIDNIGHT.  00Z RUC
SHOWS MODERATE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY CONTINUING THROUGH THE
NIGHT...SO THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTION.  BETTER SYNOPTIC LIFT HAS LIFTED NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA...SO SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING THOUGH NOT
COMPLETELY FADE UNTIL THE ENTIRE SYSTEM HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA.

WILL NEED TO WATCH BACK TO OUR WEST LATER TONIGHT AS THE MID-LEVEL
COLD FRONT APPROACHES AREAS NW OF TUL.  COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
IN THE COLD AIR FOR A FEW DIME-QUARTER HAILERS ALONG AND NW OF I-44.

WILL ISSUE ONE MORE AFD THIS EVNG ARND 10 PM AFTER A LOOK AT NEW
MODEL DATA.

FCSTID = 22

.TUL...
AR...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 1100 PM CST MONDAY FOR ZONES
ARZ001>002...ARZ010>011...ARZ019>020...ARZ029.

OK...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 1100 PM CST MONDAY FOR ZONES
OKZ049...OKZ053...OKZ055>058...OKZ060>076.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
835 PM CST MON NOV 22 1999

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0620 PM    5 SW OKEMAH               OK    1.75 INCH HAIL
11/22/99   OKFUSKEE                        REPORT RECEIVED FROM
                                           WSFO OUN

0625 PM    COLLINSVILLE              OK    TORNADO
11/22/99   TULSA                           SPOTTERS REPORTED A
                                           TORNADO ON THE GROUND
                                           NEAR 146TH STREET AND
                                           HIGHWAY 75 MOVING
                                           NORTHEAST.

0710 PM    TULSA                     OK    60 MPH TSTM GUST
11/22/99   TULSA                           SPOTTERS REPORTED 60 TO
                                           70 KNOT WINDS ON 71ST
                                           STREET BETWEEN HIGHWAY
                                           169 AND MINGO.

0725 PM    OKMULGEE                  OK    .75 INCH HAIL
11/22/99   OKMULGEE

0730 PM    CATOOSA                   OK    TORNADO
11/22/99   ROGERS                          SPOTTERS REPORTED
                                           POWER LINES SNAPPED
                                           WEST OF CATOOSA.

0734 PM    BALD HILL                 OK    1 INCH HAIL
11/22/99   OKMULGEE

0738 PM    TULSA                     OK    TORNADO
11/22/99   TULSA                           SPOTTERS REPORTED AT
                                           LEAST 8 POWER LINE
                                           POLES DOWN NEAR 11TH
                                           STREET SOUTH AND 193RD
                                           STREET...AND LARGE
                                           TREES DOWN AT 121ST AND
                                           MINGO.

0744 PM    CATOOSA                   OK    TORNADO
11/22/99   ROGERS                          SPOTTERS REPORTED
                                           TRUCKS AND CARS
                                           OVERTURNED IN CENTER OF
                                           MEDIAN.

0803 PM    SAVANNA                   OK    .75 INCH HAIL
11/22/99   PITTSBURG                       SPOTTERS REPORTED DIME
                                           SIZE HAIL.