Severe Thunderstorm Warning 523, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
545 PM CST MON NOV 22 1999

ABOUT TO UPDATE ZONES TO INCLUDE NEW SVR TSTM WATCH CONFIGURATION.
OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE STRONGEST 3 HR PRESSURE FALLS
TAKING PLACE JUST NW OF TUL.  THEREFORE...THIS AREA WILL SEE THE
STRONGEST INCREASE IN SFC MSTR CONVERGENCE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO.  LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO BACK IN ADVANCE OF THE PRESSURE
FALLS AND LEAD TO STRONGER LOW-LEVEL INFLOW AND STORM RELATIVE
HELICITY.  DESPITE A SVR TSTM WATCH BEING IN EFFECT...ALL INTERESTED
PARTIES SHOULD BE READY FOR TORNADIC CONDITIONS AS SUFFICIENT SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY ARE IN PLACE.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT AS 45-55 KT MID-LEVEL WINDS RUN
PARALLEL TO THE FRONT...CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM PNC-LTS...LEADS TO
TRAINING OF CELLS.  HOWEVER...ONE-HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES
ARE GENERALLY 2.5-3.5 INCHES AND WILL BE HARD TO BEAT.  BY
MIDNIGHT...MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER SOME...CAUSING THE ACTION TO
FINALLY SHIFT EAST SOME THOUGH INCREASING THE THREAT FOR A SQUALL
LINE AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.

FCSTID = 22

.TUL...
AR...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 11 PM FOR ZONES
ARZ001...002...010...011...019...020...029.
OK...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 800 PM CST MONDAY FOR ZONES
OKZ054...OKZ059.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 1100 PM CST MONDAY
FOR REMAINDER OF AREA.