Severe Thunderstorm Warning 534, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
830 PM CST MON NOV 22 1999

WILL SOON UPDATE PRIMARILY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EXPIRED WATCH OVER
OSAGE AND PAWNEE COUNTIES.  LOOKS LIKE THE WIND PROFILE IS CURRENTLY
ABOUT AS FAVORABLE AS IT WILL GET FOR SEVERE WEATHER.  PROFILERS
SHOW MID-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEGUN VEERING WITH THE IMPENDING PASSAGE
OF THE SHORTWAVE...AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DRY PUNCH AT THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS WORKING INTO ERN OK.  THIS IS ALL CONTRIBUTING TO
THE INCREASE IN BOW ECHOES ALONG THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS.  AS THE
STRONGEST SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS WORK INTO WEST CENTRAL MO...LOW
LEVEL WINDS IN ERN OK/NW AR SHOULD START TO VEER AND LEAD TO LESS
LOW-LEVEL INFLOW AND STORM RELATIVE HELICITY.  THERE WILL STILL BE A
GOOD DEAL OF SPEED SHEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO THE MAIN THREAT WILL
SHIFT FROM TORNADOES TO DAMAGING WINDS BEFORE MIDNIGHT.  00Z RUC
SHOWS MODERATE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY CONTINUING THROUGH THE
NIGHT...SO THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTION.  BETTER SYNOPTIC LIFT HAS LIFTED NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA...SO SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING THOUGH NOT
COMPLETELY FADE UNTIL THE ENTIRE SYSTEM HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA.

WILL NEED TO WATCH BACK TO OUR WEST LATER TONIGHT AS THE MID-LEVEL
COLD FRONT APPROACHES AREAS NW OF TUL.  COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
IN THE COLD AIR FOR A FEW DIME-QUARTER HAILERS ALONG AND NW OF I-44.

WILL ISSUE ONE MORE AFD THIS EVNG ARND 10 PM AFTER A LOOK AT NEW
MODEL DATA.

FCSTID = 22

.TUL...
AR...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 1100 PM CST MONDAY FOR ZONES
ARZ001>002...ARZ010>011...ARZ019>020...ARZ029.

OK...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 1100 PM CST MONDAY FOR ZONES
OKZ049...OKZ053...OKZ055>058...OKZ060>076.