Flash Flood Warning 28, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
245 PM CST FRI JAN 22 1999

LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NWRN ARKANSAS
WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES STATES.  A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW INTO CNTRL TX.  A THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR CVG SWWD ACROSS KY...NR BWG...INTO
CNTRL MS.  STABLE AND RAIN-COOLED AIRMASS COVERS MOST OF FA ATTM.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW OVER N TX.  MODELS ARE ON TARGET
WITH THE LOCATION OF THIS SYSTEM SO FAR AND THEY ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THROUGH 30 HOURS.  THE BIG DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS THE
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  THE AVN MOVES
THE COLD FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT.  HOWEVER...THE
ETA/NGM IS SLOWER WITH MUCH OF WRN KY/SERN IL/SWRN IN STILL IN THE
WARM AIR AT 12Z SAT MORNING.  THE FRONT THEN MOVES EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS.  BELIEVE BEST WAY TO GO WITH
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE TO BLEND THE MODELS.

LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS DRY SLOT EXTENDING FROM EAST TEXAS INTO
SRN MO.  NONE OF THE MODELS HANDLE THIS VERY WELL.  THE ETA APPEARS
TO BE CLOSEST TO WHAT I EXPECT OF THE PROGRESSION OF THE DRYSLOT
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  CURRENT THINKING IS THAT FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL NEED TO BE CONTINUED FOR PORTIONS OF WRN KY/SW IN THRU
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  AFTER COORDINATION WITH CHI/ILX...AM INCLINED
TO CONTINUE FFW ACROSS SERN IL FOR THE EVENING HOURS.

SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD WITH WRAP-AROUND CLOUDS AND RAIN RETURNING TO REGION SAT.
CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD FINALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST SAT
NIGHT.

FORECAST TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE A BLEND OF FAN/FWC GUIDANCE.

.PAH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THIS EVENING FOR SERN IL.
       FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF WRN KY AND SWRN IN TONIGHT.

HOVIS

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-231300-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
NOON CST FRI JAN 22 1999

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IN HOPKINSVILLE AREA...
...THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ACROSS ENTIRE AREA...

A STRONG SPRING-LIKE STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE LOWER
OHIO AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THIS SLOW MOVING SYSTEM HAS PUMPED VERY WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
INTO THE REGION.

THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS CONFINED TO A SMALL SECTION
OF WEST KENTUCKY AROUND HOPKINSVILLE.  THATS WHERE THE MOST
FAVORABLE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WILL BE LOCATED.  THE REST
OF THE REGION HAS A THREAT OF STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN.  ANY ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL WHEN COMBINED WITH THE PREVIOUS TOTALS RECEIVED SINCE
THURSDAY WILL CAUSE A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING.

LIMITING FACTORS FOR THUNDERSTORM RAINS INCLUDE INSUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND BETTER STORM POTENTIAL IN THE DEEP SOUTH.  ALL THE
RECENT RAINS HAVE HAD A STABILIZING EFFECT ON THE ATMOSPHERE.
BETTER STORM DYNAMICS ACROSS LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE
FAVOR STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THOSE SPOTS.  STORMS IN THESE PLACES
WOULD WORK TO CUT OFF GULF MOISTURE FROM STORMS IN OUR AREA.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE MAINLY TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.

TPAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1224 PM CST FRI JAN 22 1999

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0100 AM    3 W WEST PADUCAH          KY   TORNADO
01/22/99   MCCRACKEN                      DAMAGE ASSESSMENT BY WCM
                                          INDICATES F1 TORNADO
                                          STRUCK LONE LAKE
                                          SUBDIVISION.  500 FEET
                                          WIDE BY 1 1/4 MILE LONG
                                          PATH. TOP WINDS 100 MPH.

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