Flash Flood Warning 20, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
155 AM CST FRI JAN 22 1999

BUSY TO SAY LEAST. DILEMMAS ARE SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL.

SHORT TERM.  LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED SUPERCELLS HAS ORGANIZED INTO A
LINE PAST FEW HOURS. 00Z MODELS SIMILAR IN BRINGING VORT LOBE
THROUGH OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY STRONG NVA FRIDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE
OF NEXT...AND MAIN...VORT MAX/SHORT WAVE. BASED ON QPF FIELDS
COMPARED TO CURRENT WX LIKED ETA MODEL BETTER. SATELLITE/RADAR AND
MODELS INDICATE COULD BE A BREAK EARLY FRIDAY UNTIL NEXT WAVE OF
SEVERE WEATHER MOVES IN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NOT WILLING TO
ATTEMPT TO SEPARATE ANY POSSIBLE BREAKS IN THE ZONES...HENCE
CATEGORICAL POPS SIMILAR TO NUMERICAL GUIDANCE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WILL GO CLOSER TO FWC NUMBERS TODAY BUT BOTH ARE CLOSE SATURDAY.

QUESTION OF FFA. CURRENT FFA COVERING AREA WHERE COPIOUS RAINFALL
HAS OCCURRED BUT IS DIMINISHING SOME.  NEXT ROUND OF STORMS WILL COME
ON TOP OF SATURATED GROUND AND WATCH WILL BE CONTINUED. WILL EXTEND
WATCH TO EASTERNMOST COUNTIES OF PAH FA DUE TO NUMEROUS FACTORS IN
FAVOR OF HEAVY RAIN SUCH AS SCREAMING LLJ/HIGH PW-DEWPOINTS AND
DIGGING TROF STILL WELL UPSTREAM. AREAS WHERE WATCH NOT IN EFFECT
NOW WILL RECEIVE AT LEAST AN INCH OF OVERNIGHT RAIN SO NEXT ROUNDS
WILL OCCUR ON SATURATED GROUND AS WELL.

MAIN PVA FORECAST TO ARRIVE OVER PAH FA 00Z-06Z FRIDAY NIGHT. N-S
VORT STRUCTURE AND DEEP TROF WOULD SUGGEST SQUALL LINE FRIDAY
MENTIONED IN SPC DISCUSSIONS. NEGATIVE TILT OF TROF AND DRY SLOT
PUNCHING IN SUGGESTS SYSTEM WILL SPEED UP.  FRONT SHOULD THEN
CLEAR MOST OF PAH FA BY SATURDAY MORNING.  ETA SAYS WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE TO EXTEND QUITE FAR SOUTH BEHIND SYSTEM ON SATURDAY DUE TO
ELONGATED NATURE OF SYSTEM. ALTHO MODEL BRINGS ENOUGH COLD AIR IN
SATURDAY TO TURN LEFTOVER MOISTURE TO SNOW FLURRIES...THINK THIS IS
OVERDONE AND WILL NOT MENTION ANY FROZEN PRECIP ATTM.

LONG TERM. 00Z AVIATION LOOKS SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHTS MRF.  WILL NOT
BE MAKING MANY...IF ANY...CHANGES TO EXTENDED.

.PAH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALL OF AREA THRU FRIDAY NIGHT

SDB

INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-221605-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
900 AM CST (1000 AM EST) FRI JAN 22 1999

...TORNADO WATCH 26 HAS EXPIRED...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHWEAST INDIANA
AND WEST KENTUCKY.  EXPECT THE THESE STORMS TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS MORNING.  THE STORMS ARE GENERALLY EAST OF
THE WABASH RIVER AND THE LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES RECREATION AREA.

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  LISTEN FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS AND
UPDATES ABOUT THIS WEATHER EVENT.

TPAH

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-231300-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
NOON CST FRI JAN 22 1999

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IN HOPKINSVILLE AREA...
...THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ACROSS ENTIRE AREA...

A STRONG SPRING-LIKE STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE LOWER
OHIO AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THIS SLOW MOVING SYSTEM HAS PUMPED VERY WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
INTO THE REGION.

THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS CONFINED TO A SMALL SECTION
OF WEST KENTUCKY AROUND HOPKINSVILLE.  THATS WHERE THE MOST
FAVORABLE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WILL BE LOCATED.  THE REST
OF THE REGION HAS A THREAT OF STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN.  ANY ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL WHEN COMBINED WITH THE PREVIOUS TOTALS RECEIVED SINCE
THURSDAY WILL CAUSE A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING.

LIMITING FACTORS FOR THUNDERSTORM RAINS INCLUDE INSUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND BETTER STORM POTENTIAL IN THE DEEP SOUTH.  ALL THE
RECENT RAINS HAVE HAD A STABILIZING EFFECT ON THE ATMOSPHERE.
BETTER STORM DYNAMICS ACROSS LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE
FAVOR STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THOSE SPOTS.  STORMS IN THESE PLACES
WOULD WORK TO CUT OFF GULF MOISTURE FROM STORMS IN OUR AREA.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE MAINLY TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.

TPAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1224 PM CST FRI JAN 22 1999

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0100 AM    3 W WEST PADUCAH          KY   TORNADO
01/22/99   MCCRACKEN                      DAMAGE ASSESSMENT BY WCM
                                          INDICATES F1 TORNADO
                                          STRUCK LONE LAKE
                                          SUBDIVISION.  500 FEET
                                          WIDE BY 1 1/4 MILE LONG
                                          PATH. TOP WINDS 100 MPH.