Flash Flood Warning 6, NWS Melbourne, FL

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
210 PM EDT SUN SEP 26 1999

TONIGHT...CONVERGENCE LINES CONTINUE TO FORM BETWEEN THE COAST AND
THE BAHAMAS WITH BANDS OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THEN MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH ACROSS THE AREA.  WITH THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE...
WILL PLAN ON GOOD CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA.

MON AND TUE...MODELS SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN
SHIFTING MOISTURE PLUME NORTHWEST AS RIDGE AMPLIFIES ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND NOSES WESTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA.  THE TREND FOR
THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS BEEN FOR THIS TO OCCUR A LITTLE SLOWER THAN
MODEL PROJECTIONS.  THEREFORE WILL SHADE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE
FWCS AND CONTINUE THE CURRENT FORECAST OF GOOD CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY.  WILL INCLUDE COASTAL CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT DEEPER EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP.  ON TUESDAY
...PRECIPITABLE WATER FORECAST CLOSER TO AVERAGE AS DEEP LAYER RIDGE
BUILDS TOWARDS THE AREA.  LESS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL FURTHER
REDUCE POPS AND WILL GO WITH THE 30 PERCENT ADVERTISED BY GUIDANCE.

WED THROUGH FRI...AVN CONTINUES THE AGGRESSIVE TREND OF THE 00Z MRF
IN DIGGING A TROUGH THROUGH THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY.  MRF
LIFTS THE TROUGH INTO THE NORTHEAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THE
AIR MASS LOOKS RATHER COOL THOUGH AND THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...SO THE FRONT SHOULD
BE ABLE TO REACH THE AREA BY FRIDAY.  IT WOULD BE ONE OF THOSE
RAPIDLY MODIFYING AIR MASSES TYPICAL OF EARLY OCTOBER BUT WILL SHOW
A SLIGHT DECREASE IN MAX TEMPS.  SHOULD SEE BETTER COVERAGE BY
THURSDAY AS RIDGE ALOFT GIVES WAY TO TROUGHING AND ATMOSPHERE
MOISTENS.

MARINE...TREND HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY UPWARD IN THE GRADIENT AS HIGH
BUILDS WELL TO THE NORTH AND PRESSURES LOWER NEAR THE YUCATAN.  WILL
GO WITH EXERCISE CAUTION ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT AND INDICATE NEAR 20
KNOTS ON MONDAY.  WILL GRADUALLY REDUCE WINDS TO 15 KNOTS IN THE
THIRD PERIOD.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
DAB TB 075/086 075/087 073 5523
MCO TB 075/088 074/089 073 5523
MLB TB 076/087 075/088 074 5533

.MLB...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET .

LASCODY

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-261900-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1103 AM EDT SUN SEP 26 1999

...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING...

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW NORTHWARD FROM THE
CARIBBEAN SEA INTO FLORIDA. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW LIGHTNING STORMS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. ALL OF THE ACTIVITY WHICH FORMS WILL MOVE NORTH AT 15
MPH.

THE GREATEST THREAT FROM STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING FROM VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH
FLOODING CONDITIONS WHICH WERE COMMON ACROSS BREVARD COUNTY ON
SATURDAY NIGHT HAVE ABATED...MANY SMALL STREAMS...DITCHES AND
RETENTION PONDS ARE FULL. THEREFORE...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH
RAINFALL BEFORE STREET AND LOWLAND FLOODING BEGINS.

MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE AT LEAST AN INCH OF RAINFALL
THROUGH THIS EVENING...WHILE SOME AREAS COULD END UP WITH MORE
THAN THREE INCHES. IF YOU LIVE IN A FLOOD PRONE AREA...OR AN AREA
THAT HAS RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...BE READY TO
ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOURSELF AND YOUR PROPERTY SHOULD FLOODING
BECOME IMMINENT OR IF A FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

IN ADDITION...ALL FLORIDA STORMS CONTAIN DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS WHEN A LIGHTNING STORM APPROACHES...
SEEK SHELTER IN A SUBSTANTIAL BUILDING OR AN ENCLOSED AUTOMOBILE.

MARINERS...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE INTRACOASTAL AND ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY. STORMS
WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES...REDUCED VISIBILITY IN
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS.

RAINFALL AND SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT RAIN AMOUNTS
OVER 2 INCHES ALONG WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.

WIMMER

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-261900-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1103 AM EDT SUN SEP 26 1999

...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING...

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW NORTHWARD FROM THE
CARIBBEAN SEA INTO FLORIDA. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW LIGHTNING STORMS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. ALL OF THE ACTIVITY WHICH FORMS WILL MOVE NORTH AT 15
MPH.

THE GREATEST THREAT FROM STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING FROM VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH
FLOODING CONDITIONS WHICH WERE COMMON ACROSS BREVARD COUNTY ON
SATURDAY NIGHT HAVE ABATED...MANY SMALL STREAMS...DITCHES AND
RETENTION PONDS ARE FULL. THEREFORE...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH
RAINFALL BEFORE STREET AND LOWLAND FLOODING BEGINS.

MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE AT LEAST AN INCH OF RAINFALL
THROUGH THIS EVENING...WHILE SOME AREAS COULD END UP WITH MORE
THAN THREE INCHES. IF YOU LIVE IN A FLOOD PRONE AREA...OR AN AREA
THAT HAS RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...BE READY TO
ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOURSELF AND YOUR PROPERTY SHOULD FLOODING
BECOME IMMINENT OR IF A FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

IN ADDITION...ALL FLORIDA STORMS CONTAIN DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS WHEN A LIGHTNING STORM APPROACHES...
SEEK SHELTER IN A SUBSTANTIAL BUILDING OR AN ENCLOSED AUTOMOBILE.

MARINERS...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE INTRACOASTAL AND ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY. STORMS
WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES...REDUCED VISIBILITY IN
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS.

RAINFALL AND SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT RAIN AMOUNTS
OVER 2 INCHES ALONG WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.

WIMMER