Severe Thunderstorm Warning 239, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX
251 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 1999

WIDELY SCATTERED TSRA HAS REFIRED ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PERMIAN BASIN OF WEST TEXAS BEHIND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN BEST UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE PER 12Z SAT 20H ANALYSIS. FURTHER SOUTH TSRA IS
FIRING IN DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND STOCKTON PLATEAU ALONG OLD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY CLEAR SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE. EXPECTING ACTIVITY TO
INCREASE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT IN NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL CWA AS LOW LEVEL AIR MASS GRADUALLY RECOVERS AND SHORT WAVE
ENERGY TRANSLATES EAST FROM NEW MEXICO. ANOTHER MORE COMPACT AND
POTENT SHORT WAVE CLEARLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA
SHOULD ENHANCE LIFT AND DIVERGENCE TONIGHT LEADING TO ORGANIZED
TSRA MOVING ACROSS THE CWA. HAVE KEPT FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING ACROSS
MUCH OF CWA CONSIDERING SATURATED GROUNDS IN MANY AREAS WITH DECENT
PRECIPITABLE WATERS AND EXTREMELY HIGH 85H DEW POINTS CONTINUING.
HAVE MENTIONED SEVERE WORDING AS WELL WITH DECENT TURNING WITH HEIGHT
ALONG WITH DECENT WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW.

PREFER ETA MODEL THIS CYCLE IN BRINGING COOLER AIR...HIGHER PRESSURE
DOWN WESTERN PLAINS PARTICULARLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS PERSISTENT
TSRA SHOULD HELP DRAG HIGHER PRESSURES SOUTH. SUBTROPICAL ENERGY
SHOULD CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY JUDGING BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN
PACIFIC AND WITH EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUING WILL HAVE CHANCE
OF RW/TSRA.

GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK IN BALLPARK IN CONTINUED MOIST REGIME.

IN EXTENDED KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
NEXT SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT. KEPT CHANCE IN EXTENDED IN
MOUNTAINS...BIG BEND AND WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW
BEHIND FRONT

MAF 062/080/060/082 633
CNM 062/085/062/085 533
MRF 058/083/059/080 443
P07 070/085/067/085 642

12