Flash Flood Warning 54, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX
320 AM CDT SAT JUN 12 1999

LOTS TO CONSIDER THIS FORECAST CYCLE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
WEAK H5 ZONAL FLOW TO BECOME MORE NW BY TONIGHT.   AS CURRENT S/W
MOVES NE OUT OF W TX...SFC HIGH TO BUILD IN...PROVIDING ELY FLOW
ACROSS FA.  ETA FCST STRONG H5 DISTURBANCE TO MOVE DIRECTLY OVER FA
TONIGHT.  DRYLINE WILL BE FORCED FURTHER WEST AS ELY FLOW CONTINUES
THROUGH SUNDAY.  AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TO REMAIN BETWEEN 1-1.5 INCHES.  CAPE VALUES ARE TO
REMAIN HIGH WITH MINIMAL CAP FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.  HPC
HAS NEARLY THE ENTIRE AREA IN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK VALID
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.

BELIEVE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON IN
MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS...PRIMARILY ACROSS MOUNTAINOUS AREAS DUE TO
STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW.  OTHER STORMS COULD FOCUS ALONG LEFTOVER TSTM
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.  BELIEVE ONCE INITIATED...STORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS...AS 5H DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE
NW.  HEAVY RAINFALL IS VERY POSSIBLE...WITH MUCH OF THE CWA
SATURATED FROM EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THE LAST FEW DAYS.

WOULD RECOMMEND ISSUING FFA FOR ALL BUT ZONE 57 FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT.  BELIEVE MOST FLOODING RAINS WILL ACTUALLY COME DURING THE
OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON DURING THE
ONSET OF STORMS.

MAF 88/66/83 364
CNM 90/64/87 353
MRF 84/62/81 343
P07 88/69/86 464

SD

NMZ027>029-TXZ045>048-050>052-057>063-067>070-074-075-079>082-130500-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX
600 AM CDT (500 AM MDT) SAT JUN 12 1999

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN WEST TEXAS:
ANDREWS   CULBERSON  GLASSCOCK   MARTIN    REAGAN   UPTON
BORDEN    DAWSON     HOWARD      MIDLAND   REEVES   WARD
BREWSTER  ECTOR      JEFF DAVIS  PECOS     SCURRY   WINKLER
CRANE     GAINES     LOVING      PRESIDIO  TERRELL

AND IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO:
EDDY      LEA

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.  THE RISK AREA
IS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF AN ARTESIA...CARLSBAD...MARFA AND
BIG BEND NATIONAL PARK LINE.

SYNOPSIS:
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  LOW LEVEL EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK
AREA AND A DRYLINE PUSHED UP AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO AND
WEST TEXAS.  THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING WILL
PROVIDE AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE.  THE DRYLINE AND UPSLOPE
FLOW AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT BY THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING.

SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.  ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
IN ADDITION...STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL MOVE SLOWLY AND PRODUCE
RAINFALL RATES EXCEEDING 1 INCH PER HOUR.  THIS MAY RESULT IN LOCAL
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING.

LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS...STORM
SPOTTER GROUPS...AND OTHER INTERESTED CONCERNS SHOULD MONITOR THIS
SITUATION AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN
YOUR AREA.  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON
OR EVENING.

FOR THE WEST CENTRAL TEXAS OUTLOOK...PLEASE SEE PRODUCT LBBSPSSJT
(WWUS35 KSJT).

AKL