Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
335 PM CDT MON MAY 3 1999

MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE CONVECTION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
LATEST 12Z/3RD MODEL RUNS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
PROGNOSIS OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROF/CLOSED LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY 36 HRS (00Z/WED). LATEST 3 RUNS OF ALL
SHORT RANGE MODELS VIA AWIPS DPROG/DT HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A DEEPER
MORE SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE CLOSED LOW DEVELOPMENT. FOLLOWING ETA/AVN
COMBINATION BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND STRONG MID/UPR JET ON WEST
SIDE OF WRN U.S. UPR TROF THIS MORNING.

19Z SFC MAP INDICATED DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM JUST W OF RSL...TO W OF
MEDICINE LODGE...ACROSS FAR NWRN OK AND THE SERN TX PANHANDLE. DEEP
LOW LVL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NWD EAST OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS
KS WITH SBCAPES OF ALREADY IN THE 2500-3500 J/KG RANGE.
THUS...ATMOSPHERE VERY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER TROF. ACCORDING
TO LAPS...CAP IS WEAKENING ACROSS ENTIRE FCST AREA. LEAD WEAKER
SHORTWAVE NOW MOVING NEWD OUT OF NM/CO, WITH THE MAIN POWERFUL VORT
MAX STILL DIVING SEWD ACROSS SRN NV. WEAKER LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL
EHHANCE UVVS ALONG DRYLINE LATE THIS PM ALLOWING SVR TSTM
INITIATION AS STATED IN SPSICT. ACTIVITY TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
AS IT SPREADS EWD ACROSS CWA TONIGHT AND REMAIN AT OR NEAR SVR LVLS,
AS STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE OCCURS IN LEFT FRONT QUAD OF UPR
JET...WHILE SRLY LLJ INCREASES TO AT LEAST 50 KT AHEAD OF DRYLINE.
0-6KM SHEAR OF AROUND 40 KTS PROGGED ON ETA. WL CONTINUE HIGH CHC
POPS ACROSS CNTRL ZONES WITH LIKELY POPS S-CNTRL AND SERN KS WHERE
HIGHER QPF IS GENERATED BY ETA. CONVECTION COULD PERSIST INTO THE
MORNING HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL AND ESPECIALLY SERN KS AS
UPPER FLOW BACKS AND STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING INCREASES.

ETA/AVN INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO FORM UNDER COLD CORE
DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVER CNTRL KS TUESDAY PM/NIGHT. UNCERTAIN ON
HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVBL WEDNESDAY UNDER COLD CORE TROUGH AND
ATTM FEEL PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL TOO SLIGHT TO INSERT INTO FCST.

INITIAL GLANCE AT MRF/ECMWF FOR EXTENDED...INDICATES DRY THURS-SAT
AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.

FCSTID = 9/CARUSO
ICT   61  72  50  68 /  70  50  10  10
HUT   60  70  49  68 /  70  50  10  10
EWK   61  72  50  68 /  70  50  10  10
EQA   62  72  50  68 /  70  50  10  10
WLD   62  72  50  69 /  70  50  10  10
RSL   59  68  46  66 /  50  30  10  10
GBD   59  69  47  67 /  50  30  10  10
SLN   60  69  47  67 /  50  30  10  10
MPR   61  69  48  67 /  50  30  10  10
CFV   63  72  51  69 /  70  50  10  10
CNU   63  72  51  69 /  70  50  10  10
K88   62  72  50  68 /  70  50  10  10

.ICT...NONE.

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-050500-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1200 PM CDT TUE MAY 4 1999

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN CENTRAL KANSAS:
BARTON      COWLEY      HARVEY      MARION      RENO     SEDGWICK
ELLSWORTH   KINGMAN     MCPHERSON   RUSSELL     SUMNER   CHASE
HARPER      LINCOLN     RICE        SALINE      BUTLER

AND IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS:
ALLEN       ELK         LABETTE     NEOSHO      WOODSON
CHAUTAUQUA  GREENWOOD   MONTGOMERY  WILSON

SYNOPSIS:

AT MIDDAY A COLD FRONT WAS ENTERING WESTERN KANSAS WITH A DRYLINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR HILL CITY TO NEAR MEDICINE LODGE.  AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THIS WILL LIKELY TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ROUGHLY
ALONG OR WEST OF HIGHWAY 14 AND SPREAD EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  THE AREA AT GREATEST RISK IS WEST OF A LINE FROM LINCOLN
TO JUST WEST OF EMPORIA TO COFFEYVILLE.  THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT IS HIGHEST
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.  AS COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE
AREA...FUNNEL CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP WITH SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS.
BRIEF TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HOWERTON