Flash Flood Warning 4, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
325 AM CDT TUE MAY 4 1999

VERY BUSY MORNING.  STRONG CONVECTION EXITING EASTERN SECTIONS OF
CWA ATTM.  EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO END OVER MAJORITY OF THE AREA BY
ZFP ISSUANCE TIME. MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE THE
RE-INITIATION OF CONVECTION LATER TODAY.  LATEST SFC ANALYSIS HAS
DRYLINE OVER WESTERN KANSAS WITH MID 50 TO MID 60 DEWPOINTS ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.  NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES ABOUND
ACROSS THE AREA IN WAKE OF CONVECTION AND EXPECT THESE TO HANG
AROUND THROUGH THE DAY.

MODELS BRING SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD
ALTHOUGH THEY ARE SHOWING BIG DIFFERENCES ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE
UPPER SYSTEM....ESPECIALLY THROUGH 36 HOURS. FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY AND SWITCH WINDS AROUND WITH WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION
FOLLOWING BEHIND SYSTEM.

WILL KEEP HIGH POPS THROUGH TONIGHT.  THINK MAIN WRAPAROUND
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES BUT INTRODUCE MENTION
FOR WEDNESDAY ACROSS REMAINDER OF CWA.

FOR TEMPERATURES...WILL LIKELY BUMP THEM UP A BIT FROM GUIDANCE AS
CURRENT READINGS ARE ALREADY WARM AND AM EXPECTING A FEW PEEKS OF
SUN.  SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER FOR WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN.

NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE EXTENDED.

FCSTID = 16
ICT   74  49  64  45 /  60  40  30  10
HUT   73  47  63  43 /  60  40  30  10
EWK   73  48  63  44 /  60  40  30  10
EQA   74  48  64  44 /  60  40  30  10
WLD   75  50  65  45 /  60  40  30  10
RSL   71  44  61  42 /  50  50  40  10
GBD   71  45  61  42 /  50  50  40  10
SLN   72  46  63  43 /  50  50  40  10
MPR   72  46  63  43 /  50  50  40  10
CFV   74  51  65  46 /  70  40  30  10
CNU   74  51  64  45 /  70  40  30  10
K88   73  50  64  44 /  70  40  30  10

.ICT...NONE.

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-041700-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
541 AM CDT TUE MAY 4 1999

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN CENTRAL
KANSAS...

BARTON    ELLSWORTH  LINCOLN   MCPHERSON   RICE      RUSSELL
SALINA    BUTLER     COWLEY    HARPER      HARVEY    KINGMAN
MARION    MCPHERSON  RENO      SEDGWICK    SUMNER

AND IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...

ALLEN     CHAUTAUQUA  ELK      GREENWOOD   LABETTE   MONTGOMERY
NEOSHO    WILSON      WOODSON

SYNOPSIS:
WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS MORNING.  OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM
THUNDERSTORMS LAST NIGHT AND EARLIER THIS MORNING EXIST ACROSS THE
AREA AS WELL.  A WEATHER SYSTEM TO THE WEST IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY AS A DRY LINE FROM WESTERN
KANSAS PUSHES INTO CENTRAL KANSAS.  THE COMBINATION OF THESE
FACTORS MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON.

SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TODAY...POSSIBLY LATER
THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENTS ON THIS SITUATION.

MRU