Severe Thunderstorm Warning 54, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
840 PM CDT FRI JUN 4 1999

THIS MIGHT BE AS CLOSE TO THIS FCSTR COMES TO USING A MODEL AS IS...
BUT RUC SEEMS TO BE NAILING DEVELOPING EVENT ON THE HEAD.  VERY STG
IMPULSE SEEN ON 6.7UM WV LOOP LIFTING INTO WRN NEBRASKA...AND
ENTICING TREMENDOUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACRS WRN NEBRASKA AND
INTO SRN SD.  RAOBS ACRS REGION ARE BASICALLY A LOADED GUN...WITH CAP
ALLOWING SFC DWPTS WELL INTO LWR 70S...STLT SOUNDER SHOWING -11 TO
-14C LI OVER MUCH OF CWA...AND FITS IN WELL WITH RAOBS.  CAPES RANGE
FM 2500-4000 J/KG...AND BRN SHEAR IS SCREAMING SUPERCELLULAR.  SCARY
ASPECT IS INDUCTION OF STG LLJ BY WRN PLAINS WAVE...ALREADY CRANKING
UP TO 40 KTS ON FBY AND MRR PROF...BUT LOW LVL BOUNDARY SEEMS TO
HAVE WORKED UP TO NR KFSD AT MID EVNG.  CANNOT DISPUTE OBS...SO
BASICALLY...WHAT HAPPENS TO CONVECTION AND SEVERITY IS PROBLEM FOR
NIGHT.  EXPECT ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO REMAIN TIED TO THE LLJ FOR
THE MOST PART...FIRST RIDING THE CAP EDGE/BOUNDARY NNEWARD THIS
EVENING...THEN MAKING THE BIG EWRD TURN AND EVENTUALLY SE BY MRNG.
ATTM...I AM FAVORING ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH OF LST NIGHT WITH THE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER CAP NOSING IN...WHICH WOULD IMPACT WRN AND NRN
CWA...9V9...HON...BKX...MML...MWM MOST.  THIS WAS GENERAL IDEA OF
PREV FCST...SO ANY CHGS SHOULD NOT BE TOO SIGNIFICANT.

THE WHOLE GAMUT OF SVR WX IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT WILL
HAVE TO BE ESPECIALLY SENSITIVE TO TRACK OF HEAVY RAINS...IF
ATTEMPT TO TRACK CLOSER TO MO RVR LATER...WITH GREATER FLOODING
POTENTIAL IN THIS REGION.

.FSD...NONE
CHAPMAN

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