Tornado Warning 15, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
243 PM CDT SAT JUN 5 1999

KEEPING ONE EYE ON CRNT WTHR AND ANOTHER ON THE FCST THIS
AFTERNOON.  PROBLEM FOR TONIGHT CENTERS AROUND SVR WX
POSSIBILITIES.  DRIER OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH EARLY AM CONVECTION IN
NEB HAS SPREAD OVR SE SD WHERE DEW POINTS HAVE FALLEN 5 TO 10 F.  IN
ADDITION...WK SHRA AND TSRA HAVE FORMED ALONG APPARENT BOUNDARY.
WITH WARM MIDLEVEL AND STORMS WORKING WITH DRIER BL AIR...DO NOT
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT WITH THESE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
ONCE STORMS MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST EXPECT DEW POINTS TO RETURN TO
U60S TO L70S AS HAS HAPPENED IN ERN NEB.  THIS WL SET STAGE FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR CWA THIS EVENING.

LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING IN NE CO ATTM.  ISALLOBARIC FORCING HAS WINDS
BEGINNING TO BACK TO S OR SE ACRS NEB AND SC SD.  AS PRES FALLS
EXPAND NE...EXPECT WINDS TO BACK ACROSS SE SD.  WITH INCR MSTR CONV
ALONG FRONT EXTENDING INTO SC SD...DEVELOPMENT WL LIKELY BEGIN NEAR
FRNT ALONG NE/SD BORDER.  WITH DEW POINTS IN M60S AROUND
9V9...EXPECT STORMS TO REMAIN SCT THIS EVENING WEST OF JAMES RIVER.
VERT WIND PROFILE DOES SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AND WITH SFC
VORTICITY TO WORK WITH TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.  AS LOW KICKS OUT OF
CO AND STORMS MOVE INTO MORE UNSTABLE AIR IN SE SD...EXPECT TSRA TO
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD.  WUD EXPECT TRANSITION FROM SCATTERED
SUPERCELLS TO DERECHO OR BOW ECHO SOMETIME AFTER SUNSET AS DRY MID
LEVEL AIR INTERACTS WITH CONVECTION.  STORMS SHOULD MOVE INTO SW
MN/NW IA AROUND MIDNIGHT.

EXPECT THAT MOST STORMS WL BE E OF CWA BY SUN MORN.  HOWEVER...
LINGERING STRATIFORM PCPN OR LIGHT TSRA MAY LINGER E OF I-29.
FARTHER W...EXPECT SCT-BKN SKIES EARLY.  MUCH DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO SE SD/NW IA/SW MN DURING THE MORNING AND REMAIN THROUGH
THE DAY.  WITH DRY LOW LEVEL...DO NOT EXPECT TSRA DEVELOPEMENT.
FARTHER WEST...SFC TROF EXTENDING FROM LOW PRES IN ERN ND INTO SC SD
COULD BE FOCUS FOR -TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON SO WL GO CHC POPS
THERE.

SUN NGT AND MON LOOK QUIET AS SFC RIDGE MOVES IN.  WITH SOMEWHAT
DRIER AIR...LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 50S.  EXPECT RETURN FLOW TO
BEGIN BRINGING MSTR BACK INTO SC SD DURING THE DAY.  HOWEVER...ANY
CONVECTION SHUD HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.  FARTHER
EAST...SKIES WL BE MOSTLY SUNNY.   850 TEMPS NR 20C WL ALLOW HIGHS
BACK INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S.

.FSD...NONE

SCHUMACHER