Severe Thunderstorm Warning 23, NWS Tulsa, OK

FPUS3 KTUL 071020
AFDTUL

NORTHWEST ARKANSAS/EASTERN OKLAHOMA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
418 AM CST SAT MAR 7 1998

RUNNING A BIT BEHIND THIS MORNING.  LOOKS LIKE QUITE A MESS SETTING
UP THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT IT COULD BE MUCH WORSE.  MODELS HAVE COME
MUCH MORE INTO AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF KEY FEATURES WITH
POWERHOUSE SYSTEM MOVG THRU PLAINS...OVERALL SUPPORTING TREND OF
WHAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED IN THE PAST COUPLE OF FCSTS.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT UPR LOW TO DIG INTO WRN TX BY LATE AFTN.  THIS
WL ENHANCE A SFC REFLECTION (LOW) ACRS SCNTRL OK BY AFTN AND WL
BRING A WMFNTL BNDRY NWD ACRS THE RED RIVER.  ELEVATED STORMS N OF
THE BNDRY WL INCRS WITH A FEW HAILERS POSSIBLE ACRS SRN FCST AREA.
IN THE MEANTIME...MODELS SHOW DECENT OMEGAS ACRS ERN OK/WRN AR
STARTING LATE THIS AM AND LASTING THRU THE 1ST PD AS ISENTROPIC
INCRSS SGFTLY N OF THE SFC REFLECTION.

UPR LOW WL SWING THRU RED RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING...MOVG ACRS
FCST AREA OVERNIGHT AND EXITING TO THE NE TOMORROW MORNING.  MODELS
HAVE COME MUCH MORE IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER WRT TIMING AND POSN OF
THE LOW BY 12Z SUN.  ROUND OF PRECIP THIS EVENING MAY TAPER OFF
TOWARD MIDNIGHT AS WE GET DRY SLOTTED (AS DEPICTED BY SOLID
POSITIVE AREA OF OMEGA ON ETA RUN).  AS UPR LOW MOVES ACRS AND TO
THE NE...WRAP ARND PRECIP WL MOVE BACK IN TWD DAYBREAK ACRS ERN OK.
FCST FM PREVIOUS SHIFTS NOT SGFNTLY DIFFERENT THAN WHAT THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS INDICATE...AND PLAN TO STAY FAIRLY CLOSE WITH GOING
PATTERN THIS PACKAGE.  WL BRING SNOW MIXTURE A BIT FARTHER S AS
DYNAMIC COOLING ALOFT NR UPR LOW POSSIBLE.  WL ALSO CHANGE IT
COMPLETELY OVER TO LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY MORNING FOR AREAS N OF I44
WHERE PRECIP MAY HANG ON A BIT LONGER THRU MIDDAY.

MODELS SHOW STRONGEST LIFT AND COLDEST AVBL LLVL TEMPS N OF FCST
AREA THRU SUNDAY AFTN...SO EXPECT MOST SGFNT SNOWFALL TO BE IN A
BAND EXTENDING FM JUST W OF THE FCST AREA AND ON N ACRS THE KS
BORDER TOWARD WRN MO.  WOULDNT RULE OUT SMALL AMTS N OF TULSA AND
ALG KS BORDER BY MIDDAY SUN AS STRONG LLVL CAA SETS IN.  AS
ALWAYS...THIS MAY CHANGE.  IT ALL HINGES ON JUST WHERE THE LOW
GOES.

MAIN STORY BY SUNDAY TO BE STRONG NWLY WINDS.  GRADIENT DEPICTED BY
MODELS QUITE STRONG SUNDAY...SO WL CONT MENTION OF WINDY (20-30
MPH) MOST AREAS (25-35 AND GUSTY NRN PRAIRIES OF OK).  EXPECT
SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS SUNDAY ALL AREAS AS FNTL BNDRY MOVES E.  WENT
A GOOD BIT BLO FWC ALL AREAS SUNDAY.

FCSTID = 14

PRELIM NUMBERS...
TUL TO 055/035 036/022 XXX 14+961
FSM TR 058/040 040/025 XXX 14+851
MLC TR 059/038 040/025 XXX 14+731
BVO TS 048/034 035/020 XXX 14+961
FYV TR 055/040 043/025 XXX 14+951
IDB TC 065/045 048/028 XXX 148731
BYV TR 055/043 043/025 XXX 14+951
MIO TO 052/038 038/022 XXX 14+971
MKO TO 056/037 039/025 XXX 14+961
F10 TO 056/036 039/023 XXX 14+961=

.TUL...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-081200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
600 AM CST SAT MAR 7 1998

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TODAY.

A MAJOR STORM SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT.  EARLY THIS
MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD BECOME WIDESPREAD FROM PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA DOWN INTO TEXAS.  THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE IN ADVANCE OF THE
STORM SYSTEM AND WILL BE SPREADING OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS DURING THE MORNING.

A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING.  THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
ACROSS OKLAHOMA TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT ACROSS TEXAS
LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.  MEANWHILE...COLDER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL ALSO BE
SPREADING OVER THE REGION WITH THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMING INCREASING
UNSTABLE.

THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE IN AREAS MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH OF I-40...BUT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE.  LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT THE VERTICAL WIND
PROFILE COULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS SOUTH OF
I-40...WITH A THREAT FOR TORNADOES.  ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT THIS MORNING...THE MAIN THREAT
WILL RUN FROM AROUND MIDDAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY...THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOW ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE
POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA.  A VERY DANGEROUS WINTER STORM IS
FORECAST ACROSS KANSAS DOWN INTO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA BY LATER TONIGHT.
IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
MAINLY IN AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF I-44 BY MORNING.  HOWEVER...ANY
MAJOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AT THIS TIME WOULD APPEAR TO REMAIN FOCUSED
FURTHER OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  IN ADDITION TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
SNOW...VERY STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.  GUSTY WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 30 MILES AN HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-081200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
600 AM CST SAT MAR 7 1998

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TODAY.

A MAJOR STORM SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT.  EARLY THIS
MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD BECOME WIDESPREAD FROM PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA DOWN INTO TEXAS.  THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE IN ADVANCE OF THE
STORM SYSTEM AND WILL BE SPREADING OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS DURING THE MORNING.

A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING.  THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
ACROSS OKLAHOMA TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT ACROSS TEXAS
LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.  MEANWHILE...COLDER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL ALSO BE
SPREADING OVER THE REGION WITH THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMING INCREASING
UNSTABLE.

THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE IN AREAS MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH OF I-40...BUT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE.  LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT THE VERTICAL WIND
PROFILE COULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS SOUTH OF
I-40...WITH A THREAT FOR TORNADOES.  ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT THIS MORNING...THE MAIN THREAT
WILL RUN FROM AROUND MIDDAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY...THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOW ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE
POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA.  A VERY DANGEROUS WINTER STORM IS
FORECAST ACROSS KANSAS DOWN INTO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA BY LATER TONIGHT.
IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
MAINLY IN AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF I-44 BY MORNING.  HOWEVER...ANY
MAJOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AT THIS TIME WOULD APPEAR TO REMAIN FOCUSED
FURTHER OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  IN ADDITION TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
SNOW...VERY STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.  GUSTY WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 30 MILES AN HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES.