Severe Thunderstorm Warning 102, NWS Tulsa, OK

FPUS3 KTUL 152049
AFDTUL

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
345 PM CDT WED APR 15 1998

WK FRONT HAS STALLED JUST TO E AND S OF TUL THIS AFTN. SHRS AND ISLD
TSTMS HV DEVELOPED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND THEY WERE MOVG
RAPIDLY NE. WINDS OVER SE OK AND WC AR HV BACKED A LTL DURING THE
AFTN AND AS WAVE DEVELOPS AND MOVS ALG FRONT THIS EVENING MAY STILL
SEE A FEW STG/SVR STORMS IN THIS AREA. NGM AND AVN BOTH SHOW VERY
HIGH POPS TONIGHT OVER NRN SECTIONS OF FA. WL MAINTAIN CHC POPS NR
THE FRONT TONIGHT AND WL ALSO LKLY INCLUDE POPS FOR NRN SECTIONS BUT
NOT THE 70-80 POPS MOS IS INDICATING.

MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MAIN FEATURES AND HV GENERALLY
FOLLOWED THE ETA/AVN SOLUTION. AREA TO RMN IN SWLY FLOW WITH IMPULSES
EJECTING OUT THRU THURSDAY. ETA KEEPS MOST PRECIP N OF FA DURING DAY
ON THURSDAY BUT WL INCLUDE SLGT CHC POPS MOST AREAS. WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW CLDS WL PROBABLY BE SLOW TO CLR...BUT SHUD DECREASE DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY.

FWC AND FAN TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE AND GENERALLY IN LINE WITH GOING FCST
PACKAGE - THUS WL STICK WITH AVN/NGM BLEND.

SMITH

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS SUBJECT TO LAST MINUTE CHANGES
TUL   53  58  40  63 /  30  20   0   0
FSM   54  65  44  64 /  40  20   0   0
MLC   55  64  43  62 /  40  20   0   0
BVO   49  54  40  61 /  30  20   0   0
FYV   52  59  40  60 /  40  20   0   0
IDB   56  68  46  64 /  40  20   0   0
BYV   52  58  40  58 /  40  20   0   0
MIO   52  56  42  60 /  40  20   0   0
MKO   53  58  43  62 /  30  20   0   0
F10   53  58  43  62 /  30  20   0   0
HHW   56  68  46  64 /  40  20   0   0

.TUL...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-161200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CDT WED APR 15 1998

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS
AFTERNOON.  A COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
DURING THE MORNING HOURS.  DEWPOINTS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAVE INCREASED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN MANY
AREAS BEHIND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.  LIFT SHOULD BE ADEQUATE FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES
SLOWLY TO THE EAST BEING AIDED BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM.

WITH THIS ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A MIAMI TO OKMULGEE
TO OKEMAH LINE. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES AND SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD MONITOR THE
WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND BE PREPARED FOR ACTIVATION.