Flash Flood Warning 14, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
310 PM CDT WED MAY 6 1998

MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO GOING AFTN ZONE PACKAGE TO REFLECT INCREASING
THREAT OF SVR TSTMS ALG KS BORDER.  UPR JET SWINGING IN LATE TODAY
IN ADDITION TO INCRSG SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND WKNG CAP.  RAISED POPS A
BIT NRN AREAS FOR TONIGHT AS MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN DVLPG
CONVECTION ACRS ERN KS/SWRN MO LATE TONIGHT AND CLIPPING OUR NRN
ZONE GROUPS.

IN AFTN PACKAGE...WL KEEP TREND OF SLIGHTLY HIR POPS IN THE NRN
ZONES (CLOSER TO BETTER UPR SUPPORT AND ENERGY)...HOWEVER CIRCLN
ARND SHORTWAVE SHUD SHOVE LLVL BNDRY A BIT FARTHER TO THE SE
TONIGHT.  CAP STRONGER DOWN SOUTH...HOWEVER BNDRY MAY FOCUS ACTIVITY
IN THE OVERNIGHT HRS...SO WL INTRODUCE SOME LOW POPS SWD.

SHORTWAVE SHUD PASS TO THE EAST EARLY IN THE MORNING...WITH SFC
BNDRY SETTLING INTO THE SERN ZONES.  BY MIDDAY...BNDRY SHUD MOVE INTO
SERN TX WITH LLVL MSTR SHALLOWING OUT ACRS FCST AREA.  HOWEVER...WITH
MIDLVL CAP WEAKENING A BIT (IN RESPONSE TO MIDLVL COOLING BY PASSING
SHORTWAVE TONIGHT) MAY MENTION ISOLD TSTMS TOMORROW AFTN AS WE
WARM IN AFTN SUNSHINE.

NEXT REAL SGFNT SHOT AT RAIN TO COME FRI INTO SAT.  CANNOT ARGUE
MUCH WITH AVN/MRF SOLNS OF EJECTING LOW FROM SWRN US ACRS FCST AREA
SAT MORNING.  LLVL REFLECTION WL FORM ALG STALLED SFC BNDRY ACRS
NRN TX FRI AFTN...PULLING MSTR ACRS SFC BNDRY INTO ERN OK/WRN AR.
SFC-850 MB FIELDS FROM MRF SUGGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WL BE THE
STRONGEST FRI NIGHT...ENDING MIDDAY SAT.  BNDRY SHUD RETREAT SE OF
AREA LATE SAT AFTN WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED SUNDAY.

UPDATED FCST ALREADY OUT.  REGULAR PACKAGE TO COME BETWEEN 4 AND 430 PM.

FCSTID = 14

SORRY FOLKS...DON`T HAVE TIME TO COMPUTE PRELIM NUMBERS ATTM.

.TUL...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-071100-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CDT WED MAY 6 1998

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
A MCALESTER TO FORT SMITH LINE.

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
WITH A STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS.  AREAS OF CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH
SOME BREAKS HAVE BEEN OCCURING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S...THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY UNSTABLE.  HOWEVER...A
CAP OF WARM AIR ALOFT ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA WHICH MAY PREVENT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON.

AT THIS TIME...IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER THE CAP WILL BE BROKEN.  IF THE
CLOUDS CLEAR MORE...SUFFICIENT HEATING MAY BREAK THE CAP AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.  ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
FORM IN THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

IN ADDITION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.  THESE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN MOVE EAST-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT.

GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY FORECAST ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP MAY BECOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES AND STORM SPOTTER GROUPS IN NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SHOULD LISTEN FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS
AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-071100-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CDT WED MAY 6 1998

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
A MCALESTER TO FORT SMITH LINE.

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
WITH A STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS.  AREAS OF CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH
SOME BREAKS HAVE BEEN OCCURING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S...THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY UNSTABLE.  HOWEVER...A
CAP OF WARM AIR ALOFT ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA WHICH MAY PREVENT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON.

AT THIS TIME...IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER THE CAP WILL BE BROKEN.  IF THE
CLOUDS CLEAR MORE...SUFFICIENT HEATING MAY BREAK THE CAP AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.  ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
FORM IN THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

IN ADDITION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.  THESE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN MOVE EAST-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT.

GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY FORECAST ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP MAY BECOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES AND STORM SPOTTER GROUPS IN NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SHOULD LISTEN FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS
AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-071100-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
300 PM CDT WED MAY 6 1998

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
A MCALESTER TO FORT SMITH LINE.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...ALONG AND NORTH OF A BRISTOW TO TULSA TO WAGONER TO
JAY LINE.

A WEAK EAST TO WEST SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON.  AFTERNOON HEATING COMBINED WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S HAVE RESULTED IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.  THESE STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND MAY REACH PORTIONS OF PAWNEE AND OSAGE
COUNTIES AFTER 4 PM.  THE STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY SPREAD THROUGH
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY MOVING INTO NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS BY MID TO LATE EVENING.  GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY...LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
HOWEVER...WIND PROFILES ALSO SUGGEST SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...SO AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

ELSEWHERE...THE CAP OF WARM AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.  THE
CAP HAS BEENING WEAKENING...HOWEVER...SO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES AND STORM SPOTTER GROUPS IN NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SHOULD LISTEN FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS
AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA, OK
359 PM CDT WED MAY 06 1998

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0321 AM    HEAVENER                  OK   .88 INCH HAIL
05/06/98   LE FLORE

0400 AM    POTEAU                    OK   FLOODING
05/06/98   LE FLORE                       HIGH WATER TEMPORARILY
                                          COVERED DEWEY AVENUE
                                          TOWARDS HOSPITAL

STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA, OK
359 PM CDT WED MAY 06 1998

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0321 AM    HEAVENER                  OK   .88 INCH HAIL
05/06/98   LE FLORE

0400 AM    POTEAU                    OK   FLOODING
05/06/98   LE FLORE                       HIGH WATER TEMPORARILY
                                          COVERED DEWEY AVENUE
                                          TOWARDS HOSPITAL