Severe Thunderstorm Warning 162, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
433 PM CDT MON JUN 29 1998

...AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING...AND WHEN PRECIPITATION WILL END
OVERNIGHT ARE MAIN PROBLEMS...

LOWER LAYERS VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE OVER CWA WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATERS RUNNING AROUND 2 INCHES.  MODELS SHOWING BOUNDARY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN KANSAS MOVING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS
AREA OVERNIGHT.  UPPER LEVEL IMPUSLE ALSO HINTED BY MODELS MOVING OUT
OF WESTERN KANSAS AS WELL.  WITH ALL THIS IN MIND THINK "LIKELY" POPS
ARE ON ORDER FOR MUCH OF AREA WITH FLASH FLOODING AGAIN A POSSIBILITY
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.  FRONT SHOULD SLIP OUT OF
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE DIMINISHING BY LATE NIGHT OVER REST OF CWA.
TEMP WISE GUID LOOKS A LITTLE COOL IN THE NORTH CENTRAL SO WILL GO
MORE IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE FOR LOWS OVERNIGHT WITH REST OF
AREA ON TARGET.  QUESTION FOR OUTER PERIODS IS HOW FAR SOUTH BOUNDARY
MAKE IT BEFORE WARM ADVECTION...OVERRUNING RETURNS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.  FOR NOW WILL JUST INCREASE CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  GRADUAL COOL DOWN ON TEMPS FOR HIGHS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

.TOP...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS POSTED FOR MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL UNTIL
       MIDNIGHT AND NORTHEAST KANSAS OVERNIGHT.  AREA IS GENERALLY
       NORH OF LAWRNECE...COUNCIL GROVE TO CONCORDIA LINE.

FRANTZ

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-292305-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1208 PM CDT MON JUN 29 1998

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL...
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON SHOULD GRADUALLY END HOWEVER MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD NOT BE RULED OUT.

SYNOPSIS: VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WAS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA.
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GIVE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.  CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD BE DIMINISHING FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTH.

FRANTZ

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-292305-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1208 PM CDT MON JUN 29 1998

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL...
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON SHOULD GRADUALLY END HOWEVER MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD NOT BE RULED OUT.

SYNOPSIS: VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WAS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA.
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GIVE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.  CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD BE DIMINISHING FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTH.

FRANTZ

KSZ005>012-017>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-292100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1225 PM CDT MON JUN 29 1998

...A HEAT ADVISORY FOR DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES CONTINUES FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...

HEAT INDICES BY THE MIDDLE TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ARE EXPECTED TO
TOP OUT IN THE DANGEROUS 105 TO 110 DEGREE RANGE.  SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PROVIDE SOME RELIEF EARLY ON AND AGAIN DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BUT MOST AREAS WILL HAVE TO
BEAR THE HIGH HUMIDITIES AND HOT TEMPERATURES AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY.

THE EFFECTS OF THE HEAT CAN BE MINIMIZED BY REDUCING OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES...DRINKING PLENTY OF WATER OR NON-ALCOHOLIC
BEVERAGES...EVEN IF YOUR NOT THIRSTY...AND WEARING LIGHT-COLORED
CLOTHING.  IF POSSIBLE...SPEND TIME IN AIR CONDITIONED FACILITIES.

THE ELDERLY...VERY YOUNG...SICK AND PERSONS WITH HEART CONDITIONS
ARE THE MOST AT RISK IN EXTREME HEAT AND THEIR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
MONITORED.

FRANTZ

KSZ005>012-017>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-292100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1225 PM CDT MON JUN 29 1998

...A HEAT ADVISORY FOR DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES CONTINUES FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...

HEAT INDICES BY THE MIDDLE TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ARE EXPECTED TO
TOP OUT IN THE DANGEROUS 105 TO 110 DEGREE RANGE.  SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PROVIDE SOME RELIEF EARLY ON AND AGAIN DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BUT MOST AREAS WILL HAVE TO
BEAR THE HIGH HUMIDITIES AND HOT TEMPERATURES AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY.

THE EFFECTS OF THE HEAT CAN BE MINIMIZED BY REDUCING OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES...DRINKING PLENTY OF WATER OR NON-ALCOHOLIC
BEVERAGES...EVEN IF YOUR NOT THIRSTY...AND WEARING LIGHT-COLORED
CLOTHING.  IF POSSIBLE...SPEND TIME IN AIR CONDITIONED FACILITIES.

THE ELDERLY...VERY YOUNG...SICK AND PERSONS WITH HEART CONDITIONS
ARE THE MOST AT RISK IN EXTREME HEAT AND THEIR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
MONITORED.

FRANTZ