Severe Thunderstorm Warning 149, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
354 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 1998

...WHERE RAINS WILL FOCUS OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND
EXTENT OF HEAT ADVISORY ON MONDAY ARE MAIN CONCERNS ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...

SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE AT 18Z.  LATEST ADAP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FOCUSING ALONG
THIS LINE AT 20Z AND ALSO SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY CAP OVER CWA.
MODELS SHOWING SHORTWAVE EMERGING FROM WRN KS TO HELP PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LIFT OVER BOUNDARY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  IMPULSE
THEN WEAKENS AND EXITS AREA BY AROUND 12Z.  GIVEN THE LOCAL AMOUNTS
OF RAIN OF 3-6 INCHES OVER THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND SOME
STREAMS ALREADY ABOVE OR EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR FLOOD STAGE...HAVE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH POSTED FOR THESE AREAS AND EXPANDED SOUTHWARD
GENERALLY TO NEAR INTERSTATE 70 WHERE WOULD EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OR SPREAD.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES...DEW
POINTS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S AMPLE BREEDING GROUND FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS.  LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WILL BE AFFECTED BY
RAIN COOLED AIR.

FOR LATER PERIODS GOING MORE WITH AVN/ETA SOLUTION IN BRINGING
ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EASTWARD MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER MODELS WANT TO PUSH FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH DURING THE DAY
MONDAY AND NOT SURE WHERE OUTFLOW BOUNDARYS AND FRONT WILL WIND UP
SO COULD SEE SOME CHANCE FOR CONVECTION REDEVLOPING ALONG BOUNDARIES
BY LATE AFTERNOON.  TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S WITH
HEAT INDICIES APPROACHING 105 DEGREES WHERE AREAS IN THE LOWER 90S
AND EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES IN THE MIDDLE 90S.  THUS HAVE REISSUED A
HEAT ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FOR
MONDAY.  MAY NEED FOR NORTHEAST KANSAS BUT DEPENDS ON BOUNDARY.

DEPENDING ON UPPER FEATURE TO WORK EAST OF AREA AND BOUNDARY TO SLIP
INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA ON TUESDAY.  WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS AREA BUT THINK BETTER CHANCE FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  TEMPERATURES JUST A TAD COOLER FOR
HIGHS ON TUESDAY.

.TOP...FLASH FLOOD ADVISORY FOR AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LAWRENCE
       TOPEKA...MANHATTAN TO CONCORDIA LINE TONIGHT.
    ...HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY EAST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
       AREAS.

FRANTZ