Tornado Warning 61, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA / RUSKIN FL
220 PM EDT WED SEP 2 1998

CURRENTLY...88D SHOWING TWO SEPARATE REGIMES OF WX GOING ON. A LARGE
AREA OF SHWS/TSTMS...ORIENTED NE/SW OVER THE N FA HAS BEEN IN PLACE
SINCE LAST NIGHT...WHICH HAS BECMG AN EXTENSION OF THE MAIN RAIN BAND
IN NE QUAD OF EARL. MORE SCT CONVECTION HAS BEEN DEVELOPING SOUTH OF
THIS AREA OVER THE CENT AND S FA. CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN BECMG MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR ISOLD TORNADOES...AND HAVE JUST ISSUED TOR FOR HARDEE.
AT THE SFC...WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING FROM THE ESE NORTH OF TPA...AND
SSW SOUTH OF TPA. THIS HAS SET UP A SHEAR/CONFLUENT ZONE OVER SCENT FA...
WHICH MAY BECMG FOCUSING AREA FOR ISOLD SVR/TORS.

FCST...ALTHO IT'S A MUTE POINT TO DISCUS MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH EARL...
IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE NGM SEEMS TO BE THE ONLY MODEL THAT
PREDICTS A CONTINUED NE PROGRESSION INTO THE PANHANDLE AND S GA BY
THU...IN LINE WITH NHC'S FORECAST. ETA AND AVN ARE MUCH SLOWER...WITH
THE AVN ACTUALLY KEEPING THE STORM STILL SOUTH OF LA THRU 60 HRS.

TIDES HAVE NOT BEEN GOING DOWN...AND ARE RUNNING ABT 1-1.5 FT ABV NORM.
SEE LATEST HLS FOR SPECIFIC SURGE FORECASTS. EXPECT TIDE LEVELS TO
CONTINUE RISING OVER NIGHT. TS WARNING COVERS TIDAL EFFECTS FROM LEVY
COUNTY TO PASCO...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH STILL IN PLACE FROM PINELLAS CO TO
SARASOTA.

RAINFALL...MAY NEED TO ADD FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT FOR HERNANDO SUMTER
NORTH. CAT POPS TONIGHT OVER N FA WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS...LIKELY CENT
AND SOUTH. ON THU...LIKELY N FA WITH GOOD CHC/LIKELY REST OF FA.

USING NHC FCST...EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN RATHER GUSTY TONIGHT...ESPEC OVER
GULF WATERS...WHERE GUST OF 40 TO 50 KTS NOT OUT OF THE QU
ESTIONS OFSHR
AND NE GULF WATERS. WINDS SHUD GRAD DECREASE LATER ON THU AS THEY VEER
TO MORE SW.

MORALES

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-022100-

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1222 PM EDT WED SEP 2 1998

...ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE TODAY FROM TAMPA BAY NORTH...
...SLOWLY RISING TIDES EXPECTED LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF HURRICANE
EARL...HAS BEEN INCREASING IN AREA AND STRENGTH. A LINE OF
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RAIN AREA WAS LOCATED
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF AT 1215 PM EDT. WITHIN THIS LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...CONDITIONS MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS. IF THIS LINE HOLDS TOGETHER AS IT APPROACHES
THE SHORE...THERE COULD ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY FROM LEVY COUNTY...SOUTH TO PINELLAS COUNTY.

BESIDES THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES...STRONGER STORMS WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING.

TIDES ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS FROM THE SUWANNEE RIVER...SOUTH TO
ENGLEWOOD ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RISE. AS OF 12 PM EDT...TIDES
APPEARED TO BE RUNNING ABOUT ONE TO ONE AND ONE HALF FEET ABOVE
NORMAL. ALTHOUGH THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE SUPPOSED TO BE FALLING
TO A LOW TIDE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...IT IS
LIKELY THAT TIDES WILL LIKELY NOT FALL MUCH...AND MAY CONTINUE TO
SLO2WLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY.

RESIDENTS ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR WATER
LEVELS ALONG THE COAST...AND BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IF
NECESSARY.

MORALES

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-022100-

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1222 PM EDT WED SEP 2 1998

...ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE TODAY FROM TAMPA BAY NORTH...
...SLOWLY RISING TIDES EXPECTED LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF HURRICANE
EARL...HAS BEEN INCREASING IN AREA AND STRENGTH. A LINE OF
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RAIN AREA WAS LOCATED
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF AT 1215 PM EDT. WITHIN THIS LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...CONDITIONS MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS. IF THIS LINE HOLDS TOGETHER AS IT APPROACHES
THE SHORE...THERE COULD ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY FROM LEVY COUNTY...SOUTH TO PINELLAS COUNTY.

BESIDES THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES...STRONGER STORMS WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING.

TIDES ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS FROM THE SUWANNEE RIVER...SOUTH TO
ENGLEWOOD ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RISE. AS OF 12 PM EDT...TIDES
APPEARED TO BE RUNNING ABOUT ONE TO ONE AND ONE HALF FEET ABOVE
NORMAL. ALTHOUGH THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE SUPPOSED TO BE FALLING
TO A LOW TIDE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...IT IS
LIKELY THAT TIDES WILL LIKELY NOT FALL MUCH...AND MAY CONTINUE TO
SLO2WLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY.

RESIDENTS ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR WATER
LEVELS ALONG THE COAST...AND BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IF
NECESSARY.

MORALES