Flash Flood Warning 45, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
254 PM CST THU MAR 19 1998

19Z SURFACE MAP INDICATES AN OCCLUDED LOW WITH ONE CENTER BETWEEN JLN
AND HRO...AND ANOTHER OVER NERN AR W OF JBR.  WARM FRONT XTNDS EWD
INTO WRN KY WITH A COLD FRONT SWD INTO SWRN AR AND NRN TX.  KSGF 88D
INDICATES SWRN EDGE OF RAINFALL FROM HRO TO JLN.  RAIN-SNOW LINE
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM STJ-CNU-TUL.

SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWS UPR LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
OKLAHOMA.  ALL THREE MODEL SOLUTIONS CLOSE ON THE POSITION OF SURFACE
AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURE.

BUSY...SO WL MAKE THIS BRIEF AFTER COORDINATION WITH TUL/EAX/STL.

JLN/SE KS...INTERMITTENT RAIN SWITCHING OVER TO A MIXTURE OF RAIN
SNOW AND SOME SLEET.  1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE.  LOW AROUND 30.
NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH.
SGF...INTERMITTENT RAIN.  RAIN MAY BE MIXED WITH SNOW OR SLEET LATE.
LOW AROUND 32.  NORTHERLY 10 TO 20 MPH.

UNO...FLOOD WATCH...OCCASIONAL RAIN.  LOW IN THE MID 30S.  WIND
BECOMING NORTH AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

AIZ/VIH...OCASIONAL RAIN.  RAIN WILL SWITCH TO A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND
SNOW BY MORNING.  LOW 30 TO 35.  NORTH WIND 15 TO 25 MPH.

SGF JB 031/033 025/046 029 04642
JLN JB 028/032 024/049 033 04532

GAEDE/GORDON

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-201800-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
100 PM CST THU MAR 19 1998

THE FOLLOWING OUTLOOK CONTAINS INFORMATION FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES

IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS   BOURBON     CHEROKEE   CRAWFORD

IN SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MISSOURI

BARRY           DALLAS        LACLEDE        OREGON         STONE
BARTON          DENT          LAWRENCE       OZARK          TANEY
BENTON          DOUGLAS       MARIES         PHELPS         TEXAS
CAMDEN          GREENE        MCDONALD       POLK           VERNON
CEDAR           HICKORY       MILLER         PULASKI        WEBSTER
CHRISTIAN       HOWELL        MORGAN         SHANNON        WRIGHT
DADE            JASPER        NEWTON         ST CLAIR

...LOCALIZED FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...
...RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME ACCUMULATION...

AT 1245 PM...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED BETWEEN HARRISON AND
FORT SMITH ARKANSAS. THIS WAS PUMPING LARGE QUANTITIES OF MOISTURE
AND PROVIDING EXTENSIVE VERTICAL LIFT.  THIS WILL RESULT IN COPIOUS
RAINFALL ON TOP OF A NEARLY SATURATED GROUND.  A FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI AS WELL AS SOUTHEAST KANSAS FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL FLOODING ACROSS THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY ON LOW WATER BRIDGE CROSSINGS.

THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...HOWEVER BETTER
DYNAMICS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

COLD CANADIAN AIR IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST...THE RAIN WILL GRADUALLY SWITCH TO SNOW.
WITH THE GROUND WET...AND THE LOW MOVING QUICKLY TO THE EAST...A
MAJOR ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF A TUSCUMBIA TO STOCKTON
TO PITTSBURG KS LINE.  ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE IN
THIS AREA OVERNIGHT.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MID-DAY.

GORDON