Flash Flood Warning 36, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
215 AM CST THU MAR 19 1998

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW IN NE TX WITH STATIONARY BNDRY EXTENDING
NE INTO THE BOOT HEEL OF MO AND W KY.  MAIN JUICY AIR REMAINS S OF
THE FRONT WITH DWPNTS IN THE 50S WHILE DWPNTS WERE IN THE UPR 30S TO
LOW 40S ACROSS THE CWA.  WV IMAGERY SHOWS UPR LVL LOW SPINNING ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE OF OK/TX.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS THIS FCST
PD.

KSGF BASE REFLECTIVITY SHOWS SHRA CREEPING INTO EXTREME SW MO AS WAS
PROGGED LAST NIGHT.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND PAINT A RATHER
SOGGY PICTURE FOR THE OZARKS REGION TDA.  LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS N AR WITH GOOD OVERRUNNING RAINFALL
EXPECTED ACROSS CWA.  COLDEST AIR WILL FILTER S ACROSS CNTRL KS WITH
SNOW THERE AND PUSH E INTO SE KS AND EXTREME SW MO AREA BY THIS
EVENING CHANGING OVER TO SNOW IN JLN THIS EVE.

MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE WITH RAINFALL ON TOP OF ALREADY SATURATED GROUND
FROM RAIN EARLIER THIS WEEK.  MANY CREEKS AND STREAMS ARE STILL BANK
FULL AND THE GROUND REMAINS SOGGY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.  WONT TAKE
MUCH ADDITIONAL RAIN FOR RUNOFF TO OCCUR AND THE WAY THE QPF
LOOKS...A FFA FOR THE ENTIRE CWA IS WARRANTED.  DESPITE THE
RELATIVELY HIGH LI VALUES (10+)...THE K INDICES ARE BETWEEN 30 AND 32
DURING THE DAY AND WITH GOOD UPR LVL DIVERGENCE EXPECTED AS THE UPR
LVL LOW SLIDES E ACROSS AR...SHOULD SEE SOME TSRA DEVELOP DURING THE
MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

EXTREME W WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT ANY MEASURABLE SNOW AND WILL
BE AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT ACROSS JLN/SE KS.  MAY SEE A COUPLE OF INCHES
THERE BY MORNING.  CHANGEOVER IN SGF WILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
POINTS EAST OF SPRINGFIELD NOT UNTIL MORNING.

RECOMMENDATIONS FOR TDA...
...FFA FOR ENTIRE CWA TODAY AND E CWA FOR TONIGHT...

SGF/JLN...PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH HEAVY
RAIN.  HIGH 40 TO 45.  NORTH WIND 10 TO 20 MPH.
UNO...PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON.  HIGH 45 TO 50.  NORTH WIND 10 TO 20 MPH.
AIZ/VIH...PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH HEAVY
RAIN.  HIGH 40 TO 45.  NORTH WIND 10 TO 20 MPH.

CCF
SGF TJ 043/032 037/025 045 05+94
JLN TJ 043/030 036/026 047 05+93

LINDENBERG

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-201800-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
100 PM CST THU MAR 19 1998

THE FOLLOWING OUTLOOK CONTAINS INFORMATION FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES

IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS   BOURBON     CHEROKEE   CRAWFORD

IN SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MISSOURI

BARRY           DALLAS        LACLEDE        OREGON         STONE
BARTON          DENT          LAWRENCE       OZARK          TANEY
BENTON          DOUGLAS       MARIES         PHELPS         TEXAS
CAMDEN          GREENE        MCDONALD       POLK           VERNON
CEDAR           HICKORY       MILLER         PULASKI        WEBSTER
CHRISTIAN       HOWELL        MORGAN         SHANNON        WRIGHT
DADE            JASPER        NEWTON         ST CLAIR

...LOCALIZED FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...
...RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME ACCUMULATION...

AT 1245 PM...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED BETWEEN HARRISON AND
FORT SMITH ARKANSAS. THIS WAS PUMPING LARGE QUANTITIES OF MOISTURE
AND PROVIDING EXTENSIVE VERTICAL LIFT.  THIS WILL RESULT IN COPIOUS
RAINFALL ON TOP OF A NEARLY SATURATED GROUND.  A FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI AS WELL AS SOUTHEAST KANSAS FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL FLOODING ACROSS THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY ON LOW WATER BRIDGE CROSSINGS.

THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...HOWEVER BETTER
DYNAMICS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

COLD CANADIAN AIR IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST...THE RAIN WILL GRADUALLY SWITCH TO SNOW.
WITH THE GROUND WET...AND THE LOW MOVING QUICKLY TO THE EAST...A
MAJOR ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF A TUSCUMBIA TO STOCKTON
TO PITTSBURG KS LINE.  ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE IN
THIS AREA OVERNIGHT.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MID-DAY.

GORDON