Flash Flood Warning 32, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
215 AM CST THU MAR 19 1998

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW IN NE TX WITH STATIONARY BNDRY EXTENDING
NE INTO THE BOOT HEEL OF MO AND W KY.  MAIN JUICY AIR REMAINS S OF
THE FRONT WITH DWPNTS IN THE 50S WHILE DWPNTS WERE IN THE UPR 30S TO
LOW 40S ACROSS THE CWA.  WV IMAGERY SHOWS UPR LVL LOW SPINNING ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE OF OK/TX.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS THIS FCST
PD.

KSGF BASE REFLECTIVITY SHOWS SHRA CREEPING INTO EXTREME SW MO AS WAS
PROGGED LAST NIGHT.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND PAINT A RATHER
SOGGY PICTURE FOR THE OZARKS REGION TDA.  LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS N AR WITH GOOD OVERRUNNING RAINFALL
EXPECTED ACROSS CWA.  COLDEST AIR WILL FILTER S ACROSS CNTRL KS WITH
SNOW THERE AND PUSH E INTO SE KS AND EXTREME SW MO AREA BY THIS
EVENING CHANGING OVER TO SNOW IN JLN THIS EVE.

MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE WITH RAINFALL ON TOP OF ALREADY SATURATED GROUND
FROM RAIN EARLIER THIS WEEK.  MANY CREEKS AND STREAMS ARE STILL BANK
FULL AND THE GROUND REMAINS SOGGY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.  WONT TAKE
MUCH ADDITIONAL RAIN FOR RUNOFF TO OCCUR AND THE WAY THE QPF
LOOKS...A FFA FOR THE ENTIRE CWA IS WARRANTED.  DESPITE THE
RELATIVELY HIGH LI VALUES (10+)...THE K INDICES ARE BETWEEN 30 AND 32
DURING THE DAY AND WITH GOOD UPR LVL DIVERGENCE EXPECTED AS THE UPR
LVL LOW SLIDES E ACROSS AR...SHOULD SEE SOME TSRA DEVELOP DURING THE
MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

EXTREME W WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT ANY MEASURABLE SNOW AND WILL
BE AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT ACROSS JLN/SE KS.  MAY SEE A COUPLE OF INCHES
THERE BY MORNING.  CHANGEOVER IN SGF WILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
POINTS EAST OF SPRINGFIELD NOT UNTIL MORNING.

RECOMMENDATIONS FOR TDA...
...FFA FOR ENTIRE CWA TODAY AND E CWA FOR TONIGHT...

SGF/JLN...PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH HEAVY
RAIN.  HIGH 40 TO 45.  NORTH WIND 10 TO 20 MPH.
UNO...PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON.  HIGH 45 TO 50.  NORTH WIND 10 TO 20 MPH.
AIZ/VIH...PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH HEAVY
RAIN.  HIGH 40 TO 45.  NORTH WIND 10 TO 20 MPH.

CCF
SGF TJ 043/032 037/025 045 05+94
JLN TJ 043/030 036/026 047 05+93

LINDENBERG