Severe Thunderstorm Warning 239, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
210 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 1998

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR TODAY IS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES/AREA OF
FOCUS.

SIMILAR SCENARIO OVERNIGHT AS PREVIOUS 24 HOURS HOWEVER SATURDAY
DAYTIME APPEARS MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED THUNDERSTORMS THAN
DID FRIDAY. 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
EASTERN TN WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS.
A WEAK NEAR STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM NE KS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MO ACROSS SOUTHERN IL TO NORTHERN KY.  LOW TO MID 70
DEWPOINTS WERE SOUTH OF FRONT WITH MID TO UPPER 60S JUST NORTH OF
FRONT. 06Z ADAP SHOWED SW TO NE INSTABILITY GRADIENT WITH -3 LI/S
OVER SW IN TO -8 OVER SE MO.

EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THIS AM WITH SOME GRADUAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AS THEY
APPROACH MORE STABLE AND DRIER AIR OVER EASTERN PART OF THE FA.
EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO BE AT LEAST IN SCATTERED CATEGORY ACROSS THE
FA TODAY CONSIDERING ADVECTION OF MOISTURE FIELDS (NSAT SHOWED 12 TO
15 H8 DEWPOINTS BY MIDDAY ACROSS CENTER OF THE FA WITH MRH VALUES OF
50 TO 70% BY MIDDAY)...INCREASING INSTABILTY...AND H5 SHORT WAVE
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE FA.  SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OVER THE WESTERN
AND NORTHERN PART OF THE FA IN MORE FAVORABLE VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS
AND INSTABILITY.

BELIEVE MOS TEMPS IF ANYTHING MAY BE A TAD HIGH CONSIDERING SHIELD
OF CLOUDS OVER FA THIS AM AND PROBABLY BROKEN LOW CLOUDS MUCH OF
DAY. H5 HEIGHTS GRADUALLY INCREASE IN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
WEEKEND...SO SEE NO RELIEF FROM HIGH TEMPS OTHER THAN WITH CLOUDS.

SHANKLIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1244 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 1998

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1123 PM    SILVA                     MO   60 MPH TSTM GUST
06/19/98   WAYNE

1223 AM    POPLAR BLUFF              MO   55 MPH TSTM GUST
06/20/98   BUTLER                         CITIZEN REPORTS OF FUNNEL
                                          CLOUDS

1223 AM    POPLAR BLUFF              MO   .5 INCH HAIL
06/20/98   BUTLER

1235 AM    PUXICO                    MO   .5 INCH HAIL
06/20/98   STODDARD

1235 AM    PUXICO                    MO   60 MPH TSTM GUST
06/20/98   STODDARD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1244 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 1998

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1123 PM    SILVA                     MO   60 MPH TSTM GUST
06/19/98   WAYNE

1223 AM    POPLAR BLUFF              MO   55 MPH TSTM GUST
06/20/98   BUTLER                         CITIZEN REPORTS OF FUNNEL
                                          CLOUDS

1223 AM    POPLAR BLUFF              MO   .5 INCH HAIL
06/20/98   BUTLER

1235 AM    PUXICO                    MO   .5 INCH HAIL
06/20/98   STODDARD

1235 AM    PUXICO                    MO   60 MPH TSTM GUST
06/20/98   STODDARD

ILZ084>094-KYZ001>014-MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114-200900-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1256 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 1998

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM CDT...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM CDT...FOR ALL OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...AND FOR THAT PART OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 13 FROM CARBONDALE TO MARION AND SHAWNEETOWN ILLINOIS.
IN KENTUCKY THE WATCH INCLUDES THOSE AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE
FROM MORGANFIELD...TO PRINCETON AND CADIZ KENTUCKY.

THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL...WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND INTO PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS THROUGH ABOUT 2 AM AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND WESTERN KENTUCKY BETWEEN 2 AM AND 5 AM CDT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR THE LATEST WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS
ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.  BE PREPARED TO QUICKLY MOVE TO
THE SAFEST PART OF YOUR HOME IF A WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA.
CAMPERS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO MOVE QUICKLY TO A DESIGNATED SHELTER AREA
IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES.

SHANKLIN

ILZ084>094-KYZ001>014-MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114-201000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
253 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 1998

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM CDT...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM CDT...FOR ALL
OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...AND FOR THAT PART OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 13 FROM CARBONDALE TO MARION AND SHAWNEETOWN
ILLINOIS.  IN KENTUCKY THE WATCH INCLUDES THOSE AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF
A LINE FROM MORGANFIELD...TO PRINCETON AND CADIZ KENTUCKY.

ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND
CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.  BE PREPARED TO QUICKLY
MOVE TO THE SAFEST PART OF YOUR HOME IF A WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR
AREA. CAMPERS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO MOVE QUICKLY TO A DESIGNATED SHELTER
AREA IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES.  SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
QUICKLY FLOOD LOW LYING...FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

SHANKLIN

ILZ084>094-KYZ001>014-MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114-201000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
253 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 1998

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM CDT...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM CDT...FOR ALL
OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...AND FOR THAT PART OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 13 FROM CARBONDALE TO MARION AND SHAWNEETOWN
ILLINOIS.  IN KENTUCKY THE WATCH INCLUDES THOSE AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF
A LINE FROM MORGANFIELD...TO PRINCETON AND CADIZ KENTUCKY.

ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND
CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.  BE PREPARED TO QUICKLY
MOVE TO THE SAFEST PART OF YOUR HOME IF A WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR
AREA. CAMPERS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO MOVE QUICKLY TO A DESIGNATED SHELTER
AREA IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES.  SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
QUICKLY FLOOD LOW LYING...FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

SHANKLIN