Severe Thunderstorm Warning 230, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
130 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 1998

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK BOUNDARY BETWEEN PAH AND STL.
ONLY HIGH CLOUDS VISIBLE ON NSAT OVER THE REGION...LOW CLOUDS MAINLY
OVER ARKANSAS. KPAH MAY BE TRYING TO SHOW WEST-EAST BOUNDARY UP NEAR
THE CARBONDALE AREA.

ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON HEAT SHOULD
QUICKLY DIE OFF AROUND SUNSET LEAVING A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. MODELS IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT KEEPING A STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES EJECT OUT OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND MOVE UP THE RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL AFFECT THE
FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK WITH DECENT LIFT AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. ATMOSPHERE SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE WITH
CAPES FORECAST TO6 BE AROUND 2000-2500 J/KG AND LIS OF -2 TO -6.

RAIN COOLED LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S WERE LOWER THAN MOS
GUIDANCE FROM YESTERDAY BUT SEE NO REASON DEVIATE MUCH.

ML