Severe Thunderstorm Warning 175, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
115 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 1998

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY CENTER AROUND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT
INCLUDING FRONTAL PROGRESS.

CLEAR SKIES DURING THE AM HOURS ALLOWED SURFACE TEMPS AND
INSTABILITY TO REACH MAXIMUM VALUES POSSIBLE FOR INITIATION OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ADAP INDICATED
H5 LI/S OF ABOUT -8 ACROSS AREA AT 17Z.

NSAT 2KM VIS SHOWED CU DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWEST IL WHERE ADAP
SHOWED BEST SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND EAST OF LAKE IN
KY...OTHERWISE SKIES LARGELY CLEAR AT MIDDAY.

BEST DYNAMICS...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE NE PART OF THE FA.  COLD FRONT
FROM NW IL TO ABOUT CENTRAL MO AT 18Z SHOULD SPEED UP AS SHORT WAVE
MAKES A DECISIVE SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT NEXT 12 HOURS.  MODEL GRIDDED
DATA SHOWED LITTLE MOISTURE RECOVERY OVER SE MO WITH DRYING (30% RH
AT 850-500/60-50% LOW LEVEL RH) PUSHING EAST INTO MOST OF FA BY 06Z.
THIS MAY PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHEAST MO WITH
INCREASING CHANCES NE TOWARD SOUTHWEST IN.  EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
BE OVER ACROSS E PART OF FA BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

MOS TEMPS LOOKS OK CONSIDERING FASTER PROGRESSION OF FRONT/DRY AIR.

RLS

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-131200-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK - VALID UNTIL 600 AM SATURDAY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
310 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 1998

...MODERATE AND SLIGHT RISK AREAS EXTENDED SOUTH AND WEST...

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST
INDIANA...MUCH OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST KENTUCKY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
CARBONDALE ILLINOIS TO ELIZABETHTOWN ILLINOIS TO MADISONVILLE
KENTUCKY.  THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND WESTERN KENTUCKY...AS WELL AS
OVER THAT PART OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI NORTH OF A POPLAR BLUFF..NEW
MADRID LINE.

TEMPERATURES HAD RISEN TO AROUND 90 BY MID AFTERNOON AS SUNSHINE
REMAINED ABUNDANT ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH TONIGHT. THESE
FACTORS ALONG WITH COOLING IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
MAINTAIN A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED BY EARLY EVENING WITH
POSSIBLY MORE NUMEROUS STORMS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

WIND FIELDS WILL DEVELOP STRONG SPEED SHEAR BY THIS EVENING AS A
BAND OF 60 TO 80 MPH WINDS IN THE MID LEVELS MOVES INTO THE AREA...
PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA. THIS
SPEED SHEAR COMBINED WITH THE VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SUPERCELLS.  A FEW OF THESE
SUPERCELLS COULD BECOME TORNADIC.

STORMS WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AT 35 MPH.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THIS EVvENING...PARTICULARLY OVER
SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND NEARBY AREAS OF ILLINOIS AND KENTUCKY.

SHANKLIN

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-131200-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK - VALID UNTIL 600 AM SATURDAY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
310 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 1998

...MODERATE AND SLIGHT RISK AREAS EXTENDED SOUTH AND WEST...

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST
INDIANA...MUCH OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST KENTUCKY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
CARBONDALE ILLINOIS TO ELIZABETHTOWN ILLINOIS TO MADISONVILLE
KENTUCKY.  THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND WESTERN KENTUCKY...AS WELL AS
OVER THAT PART OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI NORTH OF A POPLAR BLUFF..NEW
MADRID LINE.

TEMPERATURES HAD RISEN TO AROUND 90 BY MID AFTERNOON AS SUNSHINE
REMAINED ABUNDANT ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH TONIGHT. THESE
FACTORS ALONG WITH COOLING IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
MAINTAIN A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED BY EARLY EVENING WITH
POSSIBLY MORE NUMEROUS STORMS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

WIND FIELDS WILL DEVELOP STRONG SPEED SHEAR BY THIS EVENING AS A
BAND OF 60 TO 80 MPH WINDS IN THE MID LEVELS MOVES INTO THE AREA...
PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA. THIS
SPEED SHEAR COMBINED WITH THE VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SUPERCELLS.  A FEW OF THESE
SUPERCELLS COULD BECOME TORNADIC.

STORMS WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AT 35 MPH.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THIS EVvENING...PARTICULARLY OVER
SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND NEARBY AREAS OF ILLINOIS AND KENTUCKY.

SHANKLIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
717 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 1998

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0705 PM    CAMPBELL HILL             IL   1 INCH HAIL
06/12/98   JACKSON                        MARBLE TO QUARTER SIZED
                                          HAIL. RELAYED BY JACKSON
                                          CO EMA.

0705 PM    WILLISVILLE               IL   .75 INCH HAIL
06/12/98   PERRY                          DIME SIZED HAIL. REPORTED
                                          BY SKYWARN SPOTTER.