Severe Thunderstorm Warning 114, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
355 PM CDT TUE APR 14 1998

LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE LOW DEEPENING OVER WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. ONE SEVERE STORM JUST RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER
KIOWA COUNTY IN AREA JUST SOUTH OF DRYLINE BULGE AND ENHANCED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. EXPECT SVR STORMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE DRYLINE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING AS
DRYLINE SLOWLY ADVANCES INTO DEEPENING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. LATEST PROFILER PLOTS SHOW DECENT LOW
LEVEL VEERING SO ROTATING STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THUS...SPC HAS
AREAS EAST OF THE DRYLINE IN A TORN BOX UNTIL 03Z.

MODELS ARE HANDLING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BETTER THAN YESTERDAY...WHEN
THE DRYLINE WAS PROGGED TO BE WELL EAST OF OKC AT 00Z. SUPRISED TO
SEE THAT THE NGM HAD THE BEST SFC LOW LOCATION AT 18Z THIS RUN.
HOWEVER...PREFER ETA DRYLINE PLACEMENT. EITHER WAY...SFC FEATURES
WILL PROGRESS QUICKLY EASTWARD ONCE SHORTWAVE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
MOVES ACROSS SRN KS/NRN OK LATER TONIGHT. WILL HAVE STORMS ENDING
OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHEAST/NORTHEAST BY MIDNIGHT

WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE TO DEAL OVER THE NORTH
ON WED. TEMP FORECASTS WILL BE RATHER CHALLENGING DEPENDING ON HOW
FAR SOUTH WRAP-AROUND OCCURS. FOR NOW WILL SOCK IN THE NRN 2 TIERS
OF COUNTIES AND GO WITH TEMPS AT LEAST A COUPLE OF CATEGORIES BELOW
MOS. WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE CLOUDS OVER THE REST OF THE AREA WED
NIGHT.  WILL ALSO HAVE LOW POPS NORTH ON WED AND SPREAD SOUTHWARD
WED NIGHT AND THURS.

EXTENDED PROGGS SEEM CONSISTENT AS FAR AS THICKNESS/TEMPS AS
CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS INTO THE SRN PLAINS...BUT ARE INCONSISTENT ON
HANDLING OF MOISTURE. THEREFORE WILL INCLUDE LOW CONFIDENCE POPS FOR
FRIDAY THRU SUNDAY.

HAVE RUN ZONES ON ICWF AND WILL DO QUICK EDITS AND SEND SHORTLY.

FCSTID = 17/MMT
OKC   55  71  45  62 /  40  20  20  20
HBR   52  74  46  64 /  30   0  10  20
SPS   55  75  47  65 /  30   0  10  20
GAG   47  58  40  58 /  10  30  20  20
PNC   52  62  45  60 /  50  30  20  20
DUA   58  76  49  65 /  50  20  10  20

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-142100-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT TUE APR 14 1998

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF A LINE FROM
DURANT TO PONCA CITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THAT PART OF OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS EAST OF A LINE FROM MEDFORD TO SEYMOUR TEXAS. THE
PRIMARY THREAT IS LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ALTHOUGH ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN  THE MODERATE RISK AREA.

DISCUSSION...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWEST
KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA TODAY. APPROACHING MID-LEVEL ENERGY AND THE
ASSOCIATED JET OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
INCREASE THE LIFT REQUIRED FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE RISK AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. A DRYLINE...STRETCHING SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW...WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL INITIALLY BE MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FARTHER NORTH IN THE RISK AREA AND
ACROSS KANSAS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING.

THE AXIS OF GREATEST SURFACE MOISTURE AND A MORE FAVORABLE WIND
PROFILE FOR SEVERE STORMS EXIST ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA WHICH
INCLUDES AREAS NORTH...EAST...AND SOUTHEAST OF THE OKLAHOMA CITY
AREA. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH ANY
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.

WR

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OKLAHOMA
325 PM CDT TUE APR 14 1998

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

318 PM     3 E ROOSEVELT             OK   1.00 INCH HAIL.
04/14/98   KIOWA

CW

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OKLAHOMA
345 PM CDT TUE APR 14 1998

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

329 PM     3 E COOPERTON             OK   1.00 INCH HAIL.
04/14/98   KIOWA

CW

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OKLAHOMA
407 PM CDT TUE APR 14 1998

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

355 PM     2 W COOPERTON             OK   80 MPH THUNDERSTORM
4/14/98    KIOWA                          WIND GUSTS.

355 PM     2 W COOPERTON             OK   1.00 INCH HAIL.
4/14/98    KIOWA

TL

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