Severe Thunderstorm Warning 111, NWS Norman, OK

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OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-142100-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT TUE APR 14 1998

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF A LINE FROM
DURANT TO PONCA CITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THAT PART OF OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS EAST OF A LINE FROM MEDFORD TO SEYMOUR TEXAS. THE
PRIMARY THREAT IS LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ALTHOUGH ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN  THE MODERATE RISK AREA.

DISCUSSION...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWEST
KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA TODAY. APPROACHING MID-LEVEL ENERGY AND THE
ASSOCIATED JET OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
INCREASE THE LIFT REQUIRED FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE RISK AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. A DRYLINE...STRETCHING SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW...WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL INITIALLY BE MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FARTHER NORTH IN THE RISK AREA AND
ACROSS KANSAS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING.

THE AXIS OF GREATEST SURFACE MOISTURE AND A MORE FAVORABLE WIND
PROFILE FOR SEVERE STORMS EXIST ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA WHICH
INCLUDES AREAS NORTH...EAST...AND SOUTHEAST OF THE OKLAHOMA CITY
AREA. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH ANY
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.

WR

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-142100-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT TUE APR 14 1998

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF A LINE FROM
DURANT TO PONCA CITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THAT PART OF OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS EAST OF A LINE FROM MEDFORD TO SEYMOUR TEXAS. THE
PRIMARY THREAT IS LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ALTHOUGH ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN  THE MODERATE RISK AREA.

DISCUSSION...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWEST
KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA TODAY. APPROACHING MID-LEVEL ENERGY AND THE
ASSOCIATED JET OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
INCREASE THE LIFT REQUIRED FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE RISK AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. A DRYLINE...STRETCHING SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW...WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL INITIALLY BE MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FARTHER NORTH IN THE RISK AREA AND
ACROSS KANSAS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING.

THE AXIS OF GREATEST SURFACE MOISTURE AND A MORE FAVORABLE WIND
PROFILE FOR SEVERE STORMS EXIST ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA WHICH
INCLUDES AREAS NORTH...EAST...AND SOUTHEAST OF THE OKLAHOMA CITY
AREA. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH ANY
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.

WR