Flash Flood Warning 45, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
445 AM CDT MON OCT 5 1998

ONE WORD: WOW!!

NOW ON TO THE CURRENT FORECAST...  RUNNING WAY BEHIND THE POWER CURVE
THIS MORNING DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE FA AS FRONT
LIGHTS UP AND NEW WW ISSUED.  CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BACK-BUILD
SWWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT EVER SO SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH.  THIS IN
RESPONSE TO LLJ AND INCREASING INFLUENCE FROM NEXT SHORTWAVE NOW
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF.  AIRMASS IS STILL
GOOD..ALTHOUGH CAPES ARE LOWER DUE TO DIURNAL COOLING..BUT SHEAR
PROFILES REMAIN VERY IMPRESSIVE AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
ORGANIZED AND OCCASIONALLY SEVERE STORMS THRU THE DAY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT.

IN ADDITION..WE WILL HOIST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
CENTRAL..SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ZONES THRU TODAY.  THERE IS
SOME CONCERN THAT THE FRONT MAY NOT MOVE SEWD AS FAST AS
PROGGED..AND FURTHER..ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY STILL DEVELOP BEHIND
THE SFC FRONT ABOVE SHALLOW COLD AIR.  THUS..THE FFA MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED INTO TONITE OVER THE SOUTHEAST..BUT ATTM BEST COURSE OF
ACTION IS TO LET DAY SHIFT DECIDE THIS.

FRONT SHUD FINALLY CLEAR THE FA BY TUES MORNING..BRINGING IN MUCH
COOLER NRLY FLOW.  NORTH ZONE WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE AND SHOWERS TUE/TUE NITE..BUT ELECTED TO LEAVE OUT
FOR NOW.  NO CHANGES TO EXTENDED..NO TIME TO LOOK AT.

THANKS FOR COORD WITH FTW.
 MILLER

FCSTID = 21
OKC   79  53  68  48 /  70  30  10  10
HBR   73  48  71  43 /  50  10  10  10
SPS   83  56  75  50 /  60  30  10  10
GAG   67  41  66  39 /  10  10   0  10
PNC   68  50  67  45 /  50  10  10  10
DUA   84  63  76  56 /  80  40  30  10

.OUN...
OK...FFA OKZ013-017>020-028>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.
     SEVERE T-STORM WATCH UNTIL 15Z SE OF ALTUS..OKC..STILLWATER
TX...NONE.

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-051730-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
630 AM CDT MON OCT 5 1998

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND A PORTION OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.  THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA IS SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM GOODLETT TEXAS TO
ALTUS TO CHICKASHA TO PURCELL TO SEMINOLE. THE THREATS WILL BE LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOOD PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINFALL.  ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE ARDMORE...MADILL...ATOKA AND DURANT AREAS.

DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA WESTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. A SURFACE LOW WAS ALSO LOCATED IN
WESTERN TEXAS ALONG THIS COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. ONGOING STRONG TO
SEVERE CONVECTION THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...AND SHOULD
HELP THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST.

MEANWHILE...ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD
FROM NEW MEXICO TODAY TOWARD SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN A STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
PROFILE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HELP THE ATMOSPHERE BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. SOME OF THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

ANOTHER THREAT FROM THE STORMS TODAY WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
FLASH FLOOD PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW LOCATIONS TO
EXPERIENCE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR ACTIVATION TODAY THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

 MILLER

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-051730-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
630 AM CDT MON OCT 5 1998

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND A PORTION OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.  THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA IS SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM GOODLETT TEXAS TO
ALTUS TO CHICKASHA TO PURCELL TO SEMINOLE. THE THREATS WILL BE LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOOD PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINFALL.  ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE ARDMORE...MADILL...ATOKA AND DURANT AREAS.

DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA WESTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. A SURFACE LOW WAS ALSO LOCATED IN
WESTERN TEXAS ALONG THIS COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. ONGOING STRONG TO
SEVERE CONVECTION THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...AND SHOULD
HELP THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST.

MEANWHILE...ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD
FROM NEW MEXICO TODAY TOWARD SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN A STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
PROFILE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HELP THE ATMOSPHERE BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. SOME OF THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

ANOTHER THREAT FROM THE STORMS TODAY WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
FLASH FLOOD PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW LOCATIONS TO
EXPERIENCE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR ACTIVATION TODAY THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

 MILLER

OKZ020-025>029-038-051300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
900 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 1998

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 866 IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN OKLAHOMA...

PAYNE...LINCOLN...OKLAHOMA...CLEVELAND...MCCLAIN...GRADY...AND
COMANCHE.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THESE AREAS AND FURTHER
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.

11

z

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-051730-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...RETRANSMISSION...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
630 AM CDT MON OCT 5 1998

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND A PORTION OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.  THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA IS SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM GOODLETT TEXAS TO
ALTUS TO CHICKASHA TO PURCELL TO SEMINOLE. THE THREATS WILL BE LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOOD PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINFALL.  ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE ARDMORE...MADILL...ATOKA AND DURANT AREAS.

DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA WESTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. A SURFACE LOW WAS ALSO LOCATED IN
WESTERN TEXAS ALONG THIS COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. ONGOING STRONG TO
SEVERE CONVECTION THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...AND SHOULD
HELP THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST.

MEANWHILE...ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD
FROM NEW MEXICO TODAY TOWARD SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN A STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
PROFILE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HELP THE ATMOSPHERE BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. SOME OF THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

ANOTHER THREAT FROM THE STORMS TODAY WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
FLASH FLOOD PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW LOCATIONS TO
EXPERIENCE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR ACTIVATION TODAY THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

 MILLER

OKZ044-030-051400-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
842 AM CDT MON OCT 5 1998

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 866 HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN OKLAHOMA:

    COTTON
    POTTAWATOMIE

THE WATCH REMAINS EFFECTIVE UNTIL 10 AM FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

WR

OKZ044-030-051400-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
842 AM CDT MON OCT 5 1998

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 866 HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN OKLAHOMA:

    COTTON
    POTTAWATOMIE

THE WATCH REMAINS EFFECTIVE UNTIL 10 AM FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

WR