Flash Flood Warning 44, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
445 AM CDT MON OCT 5 1998

ONE WORD: WOW!!

NOW ON TO THE CURRENT FORECAST...  RUNNING WAY BEHIND THE POWER CURVE
THIS MORNING DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE FA AS FRONT
LIGHTS UP AND NEW WW ISSUED.  CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BACK-BUILD
SWWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT EVER SO SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH.  THIS IN
RESPONSE TO LLJ AND INCREASING INFLUENCE FROM NEXT SHORTWAVE NOW
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF.  AIRMASS IS STILL
GOOD..ALTHOUGH CAPES ARE LOWER DUE TO DIURNAL COOLING..BUT SHEAR
PROFILES REMAIN VERY IMPRESSIVE AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
ORGANIZED AND OCCASIONALLY SEVERE STORMS THRU THE DAY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT.

IN ADDITION..WE WILL HOIST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
CENTRAL..SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ZONES THRU TODAY.  THERE IS
SOME CONCERN THAT THE FRONT MAY NOT MOVE SEWD AS FAST AS
PROGGED..AND FURTHER..ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY STILL DEVELOP BEHIND
THE SFC FRONT ABOVE SHALLOW COLD AIR.  THUS..THE FFA MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED INTO TONITE OVER THE SOUTHEAST..BUT ATTM BEST COURSE OF
ACTION IS TO LET DAY SHIFT DECIDE THIS.

FRONT SHUD FINALLY CLEAR THE FA BY TUES MORNING..BRINGING IN MUCH
COOLER NRLY FLOW.  NORTH ZONE WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE AND SHOWERS TUE/TUE NITE..BUT ELECTED TO LEAVE OUT
FOR NOW.  NO CHANGES TO EXTENDED..NO TIME TO LOOK AT.

THANKS FOR COORD WITH FTW.
 MILLER

FCSTID = 21
OKC   79  53  68  48 /  70  30  10  10
HBR   73  48  71  43 /  50  10  10  10
SPS   83  56  75  50 /  60  30  10  10
GAG   67  41  66  39 /  10  10   0  10
PNC   68  50  67  45 /  50  10  10  10
DUA   84  63  76  56 /  80  40  30  10

.OUN...
OK...FFA OKZ013-017>020-028>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.
     SEVERE T-STORM WATCH UNTIL 15Z SE OF ALTUS..OKC..STILLWATER
TX...NONE.