Severe Thunderstorm Warning 322, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KNOXVILLE/TRI-CITIES TN
235 AM EDT WED JUN 10 1998

WILL ATTEMPT TO FIRE OUT A SOMEWHAT ABBREVIATED AFD THIS MRNG.  BRIEF
LOOK AT CURRENT SFC/RADAR/STLT PICS AND 10/00Z DATA SHOWS VERY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS THIS MRNG...ESPECIALLY MIDDLE TN AND PLATEAU.  SFC
WARM FRONT SEEMS TO SLICE N-S THRU CNTRL KY AND PLATEAU...WITH 850 MB
ANLYS SHOWING GOOD WAA...THETA-E RIDGE AND THETA-E ADVECTION INTO THE
CWA ATTM AND THRU GOOD PART OF TODAY.  92F PROG MAY BE OPTIMISTIC IN
LIFTING THE WARM FRONT TO NEAR TRI BY 12Z TODAY.  ANYWAY...CONSIDERING
ALL OF THIS...MIGHT BE WISE TO UP POPS FOR TODAY TO NEAR FAN MOS (50-
60%).  A GOOD UPDATE ALREADY THIS MRNG FROM CRW TO ADD POPS!

GOOD THREAT OF SEVERE BASED ON STRONG WIND FIELDS AND JUST GOT A
REPORT FROM CRW OF HALF-DOLLAR SIZED HAIL WITH CELL MOVG SE INTO
RUSSELL COUNTY.  THANKS TO CRW FOR CALL AND WE WERE IN PROCESS OF
ISSUING A SVR TSTM WARNING...FOR SURROUNDING OFFICES THE VIL WAS
ONLY AROUND 50.  SPC HAS ALREADY MENTIONED A PSBL WATCH SHORTLY
WHICH WOULD LIKELY INCLUDE SWRN VA AND NE TN CWA.

OTRW...LATER PERIODS...I HAVE NO PROBLEM WITH ONGOING LOW POPS
(20-30%) FOR TNGT AND GENLY CHC (30%) ACROSS THE BOARD ON THU.
TEMPS BRIEFLY...I WOULD PROBABLY STAY BELOW THE WARMEST MAXES WITH
MINS FOR TNGT CLOSE AND ACCEPTABLE.  GOTTA GO MONITOR STORMS ON KMRX
AND KHTX PUPS!   #10

TG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KNOXVILLE/TRI-CITIES TN
350 AM EDT WED JUN 10 1998

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

320 AM     IN GLADE SPRINGS          VA   0.75 INCH HAIL
06/10/98   WASHINGTON                     DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN
                                          THE TOWN OF GLADE SPRINGS.
                                          REPORTED BY GLADE SPRINGS
                                          POLICE DEPARTMENT AND
                                          RECEIVED FROM THE SHERIFFS
                                          DISPATCH.

FERRELL

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-034>047-066>074-083>087-099>102-VAZ001-002-005-
006-008-102200-

AREA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KNOXVILLE/TRI-CITIES TN
420 AM EDT WED JUN 10 1998

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS EAST TENNESSEE...
SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA AND CHEROKEE/CLAY COUNTIES OF NORTH CAROLINA...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS MOST OF
TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS CHEROKEE AND CLAY
COUNTIES OF SOUTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

A WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU
AND SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THIS BOUNDARY WAS
ALREADY HELPING TO FOCUS A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE
WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A SLOW NORTHEAST MOVEMENT TODAY.  MUCH
OF THE AREA WILL BE SOUTHWEST OF THE WARM FRONT BY LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...LEAVING A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE.  A
COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
LIKELY SET OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...BUT ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WARM FRONT.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH AND HAIL OF DIME SIZE OR LARGER.  VERTICAL WIND
PROFILES ALSO SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOES.  PERSONS IN
AND NEAR THE SLIGHT RISK AREA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING
WEATHER SYSTEM.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND STORM SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD PREPARE
FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION TODAY.  IF YOU EXPERIENCE SEVERE WEATHER IN YOUR
AREA...CONTACT YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY AND ASK THEM TO PASS
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL W6EATHER SERVICE.

TG

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-034>047-066>074-083>087-099>102-VAZ001-002-005-
006-008-102200-

AREA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KNOXVILLE/TRI-CITIES TN
420 AM EDT WED JUN 10 1998

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS EAST TENNESSEE...
SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA AND CHEROKEE/CLAY COUNTIES OF NORTH CAROLINA...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS MOST OF
TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS CHEROKEE AND CLAY
COUNTIES OF SOUTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

A WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU
AND SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THIS BOUNDARY WAS
ALREADY HELPING TO FOCUS A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE
WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A SLOW NORTHEAST MOVEMENT TODAY.  MUCH
OF THE AREA WILL BE SOUTHWEST OF THE WARM FRONT BY LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...LEAVING A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE.  A
COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
LIKELY SET OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...BUT ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WARM FRONT.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH AND HAIL OF DIME SIZE OR LARGER.  VERTICAL WIND
PROFILES ALSO SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOES.  PERSONS IN
AND NEAR THE SLIGHT RISK AREA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING
WEATHER SYSTEM.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND STORM SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD PREPARE
FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION TODAY.  IF YOU EXPERIENCE SEVERE WEATHER IN YOUR
AREA...CONTACT YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY AND ASK THEM TO PASS
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL W6EATHER SERVICE.

TG