Severe Thunderstorm Warning 320, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KNOXVILLE/TRI-CITIES TN
235 AM EDT WED JUN 10 1998

WILL ATTEMPT TO FIRE OUT A SOMEWHAT ABBREVIATED AFD THIS MRNG.  BRIEF
LOOK AT CURRENT SFC/RADAR/STLT PICS AND 10/00Z DATA SHOWS VERY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS THIS MRNG...ESPECIALLY MIDDLE TN AND PLATEAU.  SFC
WARM FRONT SEEMS TO SLICE N-S THRU CNTRL KY AND PLATEAU...WITH 850 MB
ANLYS SHOWING GOOD WAA...THETA-E RIDGE AND THETA-E ADVECTION INTO THE
CWA ATTM AND THRU GOOD PART OF TODAY.  92F PROG MAY BE OPTIMISTIC IN
LIFTING THE WARM FRONT TO NEAR TRI BY 12Z TODAY.  ANYWAY...CONSIDERING
ALL OF THIS...MIGHT BE WISE TO UP POPS FOR TODAY TO NEAR FAN MOS (50-
60%).  A GOOD UPDATE ALREADY THIS MRNG FROM CRW TO ADD POPS!

GOOD THREAT OF SEVERE BASED ON STRONG WIND FIELDS AND JUST GOT A
REPORT FROM CRW OF HALF-DOLLAR SIZED HAIL WITH CELL MOVG SE INTO
RUSSELL COUNTY.  THANKS TO CRW FOR CALL AND WE WERE IN PROCESS OF
ISSUING A SVR TSTM WARNING...FOR SURROUNDING OFFICES THE VIL WAS
ONLY AROUND 50.  SPC HAS ALREADY MENTIONED A PSBL WATCH SHORTLY
WHICH WOULD LIKELY INCLUDE SWRN VA AND NE TN CWA.

OTRW...LATER PERIODS...I HAVE NO PROBLEM WITH ONGOING LOW POPS
(20-30%) FOR TNGT AND GENLY CHC (30%) ACROSS THE BOARD ON THU.
TEMPS BRIEFLY...I WOULD PROBABLY STAY BELOW THE WARMEST MAXES WITH
MINS FOR TNGT CLOSE AND ACCEPTABLE.  GOTTA GO MONITOR STORMS ON KMRX
AND KHTX PUPS!   #10

TG