Severe Thunderstorm Warning 68, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
312 PM CST FRI MAR 6 1998

SFC ANLYS SHOWS PERSISTENT WAVY SFC FNT ACRS SRN STATES WITH SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACKING OVER IT WITH INCRG SW UPR FLOW
DEVELOPING ACRS SRN PLAINS. 88D ACTIVE ONCE AGAIN AS CNVTV ACTIVITY
ADVECTING RGN FM SW...AS FA UNDER INFLUENCE OF AGEO FORCING FM LF RGN
OF 100 KT JET STREAK OVR NW GULF THROUGH 12Z SAT. MESO-ETA SHOWS UPR
TROF AMPLIFYING FURTHER AS 100 KT JET DYNAMICS DIG SWRD OVR 4 CRNRS
BY SAT...SRN PLAINS UPR TROF DIGS WITH UPR LVL DIFFLUENCE INCREASING
OVR RGN AND APPEARS TO REMAIN ESTABLISHED THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY.
THIS WL ENHANCE PROLONGED +RA THREAT AS LARGE AREA OF PCPN BECOMES E-
W ORIENTED ALG COAST. LATEST QPF SHOWS 3 TO 5 INCH RAIN AMTS ON TOP
OF SOIL THAT HAS ALREADY RECEIVED SOME RAIN PAST COUPLE DAYS. WL NEED
TO MONITR FOR FFAS WITH HEAVIEST RAINS LOOKING TO RANGE FROM SAT
MORNING THRU EVE. SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BECOMES PRONOUNCED SAT
EVE AS SFC LOW INTENSIFIES OVER OKLAHOMA...PROVIDING THE POTENTIAL
FOR DEEP ROTATION IN INDIVIDUAL STMS.  SFC LOW TRACKS SLOWLY NE INTO
MID MS VALLEY BY SUN MORNING WITH SFC FNT AND TSTMS PROGGED TO
FINALLY PUSH E OF THE AREA ON SUN. WL OPT TO INCLUDE ANOTHER NIGHT OF
DENSE ADVECTION FOG AS WELL BETWEEN PCPN WITH AMT OF LOLVL MOISTURE.
NEEDLESS TO SAY WL GO CAT POPS THRU PD...DCRG FROM W TO E ON SUN WITH
FROPA.  WL BE ISSUING NEW HWO ARND 4 PM CST TO ADDRESS +RA...SVR FOR
SAT.

OVR MARINE AREA...XPCT ONSHORE FLOW TO INCR WITH TIME AS SFC SYSTEM
INTENSIFIES. SEAS BUILDING WITH TSTMS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH
SAT NIGHT. WL INCLUDE SVR IN ADJACENT WATERS WITH MOD RISK FOR SAT.

MOB 64/69/64/67 +++6 PNS 64/70/65/68 +++6
DTS 65/70/65/68 +++6 EVR 61/70/62/67 +++6 10

ALZ051>064-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-FLZ001>006-071200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR
SOUTHWEST AL...NORTHWEST FL AND SOUTHEAST MS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1110 AM CST FRI MAR 6 1998

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST...

A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES
MOVES LITTLE THROUGH TONIGHT.  SATELLITE DATA SHOWS RAIN COOLED AIR
FROM MORNING SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS
OF ALABAMA...PUSHING SOUTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE
NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.  ALSO...A MIX OF
SUN AND CLOUDS EAST OF A LINE FROM THE MOUTH OF MOBILE BAY TO
COFFEEVILE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE WARM...MOIST...UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. THUS...STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME
HAIL...BRIEF STRONG GUSTY WINDS...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWPOURS.  SOME STORMS COULD EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS.

TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND WILL ENHANCE FURTHER SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT
MAINLY DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS ON FRIDAY.  ALSO...WITH THE AMOUNT OF
GROUND MOISTURE PRESENT FROM RECENT RAINS...AREAS OF DENSE
FOG...REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO A MILE OR LESS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT IN BETWEEN AREAS OF PRECIPITATION.

STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD REMAIN ON
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THROUGH TONIGHT.

ALZ051>064-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-FLZ001>006-071200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR
SOUTHWEST AL...NORTHWEST FL AND SOUTHEAST MS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1110 AM CST FRI MAR 6 1998

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST...

A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES
MOVES LITTLE THROUGH TONIGHT.  SATELLITE DATA SHOWS RAIN COOLED AIR
FROM MORNING SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS
OF ALABAMA...PUSHING SOUTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE
NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.  ALSO...A MIX OF
SUN AND CLOUDS EAST OF A LINE FROM THE MOUTH OF MOBILE BAY TO
COFFEEVILE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE WARM...MOIST...UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. THUS...STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME
HAIL...BRIEF STRONG GUSTY WINDS...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWPOURS.  SOME STORMS COULD EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS.

TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND WILL ENHANCE FURTHER SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT
MAINLY DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS ON FRIDAY.  ALSO...WITH THE AMOUNT OF
GROUND MOISTURE PRESENT FROM RECENT RAINS...AREAS OF DENSE
FOG...REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO A MILE OR LESS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT IN BETWEEN AREAS OF PRECIPITATION.

STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD REMAIN ON
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THROUGH TONIGHT.