Severe Thunderstorm Warning 69, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
312 PM CST FRI MAR 6 1998

SFC ANLYS SHOWS PERSISTENT WAVY SFC FNT ACRS SRN STATES WITH SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACKING OVER IT WITH INCRG SW UPR FLOW
DEVELOPING ACRS SRN PLAINS. 88D ACTIVE ONCE AGAIN AS CNVTV ACTIVITY
ADVECTING RGN FM SW...AS FA UNDER INFLUENCE OF AGEO FORCING FM LF RGN
OF 100 KT JET STREAK OVR NW GULF THROUGH 12Z SAT. MESO-ETA SHOWS UPR
TROF AMPLIFYING FURTHER AS 100 KT JET DYNAMICS DIG SWRD OVR 4 CRNRS
BY SAT...SRN PLAINS UPR TROF DIGS WITH UPR LVL DIFFLUENCE INCREASING
OVR RGN AND APPEARS TO REMAIN ESTABLISHED THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY.
THIS WL ENHANCE PROLONGED +RA THREAT AS LARGE AREA OF PCPN BECOMES E-
W ORIENTED ALG COAST. LATEST QPF SHOWS 3 TO 5 INCH RAIN AMTS ON TOP
OF SOIL THAT HAS ALREADY RECEIVED SOME RAIN PAST COUPLE DAYS. WL NEED
TO MONITR FOR FFAS WITH HEAVIEST RAINS LOOKING TO RANGE FROM SAT
MORNING THRU EVE. SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BECOMES PRONOUNCED SAT
EVE AS SFC LOW INTENSIFIES OVER OKLAHOMA...PROVIDING THE POTENTIAL
FOR DEEP ROTATION IN INDIVIDUAL STMS.  SFC LOW TRACKS SLOWLY NE INTO
MID MS VALLEY BY SUN MORNING WITH SFC FNT AND TSTMS PROGGED TO
FINALLY PUSH E OF THE AREA ON SUN. WL OPT TO INCLUDE ANOTHER NIGHT OF
DENSE ADVECTION FOG AS WELL BETWEEN PCPN WITH AMT OF LOLVL MOISTURE.
NEEDLESS TO SAY WL GO CAT POPS THRU PD...DCRG FROM W TO E ON SUN WITH
FROPA.  WL BE ISSUING NEW HWO ARND 4 PM CST TO ADDRESS +RA...SVR FOR
SAT.

OVR MARINE AREA...XPCT ONSHORE FLOW TO INCR WITH TIME AS SFC SYSTEM
INTENSIFIES. SEAS BUILDING WITH TSTMS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH
SAT NIGHT. WL INCLUDE SVR IN ADJACENT WATERS WITH MOD RISK FOR SAT.

MOB 64/69/64/67 +++6 PNS 64/70/65/68 +++6
DTS 65/70/65/68 +++6 EVR 61/70/62/67 +++6 10

ALZ051>064-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-FLZ001>006-071200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR
SOUTHWEST AL...NORTHWEST FL AND SOUTHEAST MS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
415 PM CST FRI MAR 6 1998

...MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINS IN STORE FOR
NORTHERN GULF COAST ON SATURDAY...

A WAVY...STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE LIFTING TO THE NORTH AS WARM
FRONT.  LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTENSIFYING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...MOVES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY SUNDAY WITH A
COLD FRONT SWINGING EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. IT LOOKS TO BE
A BUSY WEATHER PATTERN BEFORE THEN AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVES OVER A WARM...MOIST...UNSTABLE AIRMASS.  ONE
DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE GULF COAST BY SUNRISE
SATURDAY WITH YET ANOTHER POISED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.  WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND CHANGING WINDS WITH
HEIGHT...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLOOKED THE REGION UNDER A
MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS.

HEAVY RAINS ARE ALSO A THREAT WITH LATEST FORECASTS CALLING FOR 3 TO
5 INCHES ALONG THE COAST DURING THE COURSE OF THE EVENT. SOME AREAS
MAY SEE THIS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...WHICH WILL CAUSE FLOODING IN
POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS.

WITH THE AMOUNT OF GROUND MOISTURE PRESENT FROM RECENT RAINS...AREAS
OF DENSE FOG...REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO A MILE OR LESS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN BETWEEN AREAS OF PRECIPITATION.

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED ON SATURDAY. THE NEXT HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 10 PM CST.

ALZ051>064-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-FLZ001>006-071200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR
SOUTHWEST AL...NORTHWEST FL AND SOUTHEAST MS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
415 PM CST FRI MAR 6 1998

...MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINS IN STORE FOR
NORTHERN GULF COAST ON SATURDAY...

A WAVY...STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE LIFTING TO THE NORTH AS WARM
FRONT.  LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTENSIFYING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...MOVES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY SUNDAY WITH A
COLD FRONT SWINGING EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. IT LOOKS TO BE
A BUSY WEATHER PATTERN BEFORE THEN AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVES OVER A WARM...MOIST...UNSTABLE AIRMASS.  ONE
DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE GULF COAST BY SUNRISE
SATURDAY WITH YET ANOTHER POISED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.  WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND CHANGING WINDS WITH
HEIGHT...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLOOKED THE REGION UNDER A
MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS.

HEAVY RAINS ARE ALSO A THREAT WITH LATEST FORECASTS CALLING FOR 3 TO
5 INCHES ALONG THE COAST DURING THE COURSE OF THE EVENT. SOME AREAS
MAY SEE THIS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...WHICH WILL CAUSE FLOODING IN
POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS.

WITH THE AMOUNT OF GROUND MOISTURE PRESENT FROM RECENT RAINS...AREAS
OF DENSE FOG...REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO A MILE OR LESS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN BETWEEN AREAS OF PRECIPITATION.

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED ON SATURDAY. THE NEXT HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 10 PM CST.