Severe Thunderstorm Warning 64, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...MESOCALE UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1034 AM CST FRI MAR 6 1998

15Z SFC ANLYS SHOWS FNT...HUNG UP ACRS SRN STATES...DRAPED FM CENTRAL
GA TO SRN TN THRU CENTRAL LA TO THE UPR TX COAST.  LTL CHG WITH
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN SINCE THU. RAIN COOLED...INDUCED OUTFLOW
WITH TMPS IN MID 50S AT MGM SURGING S INTO MID TO UPR 60S OVR S CTRL
AL AND DWPTS INTO LOWER 60S.  ACRS ERN HALF OF CWA VIS IMAGERY DOES
INDICATE PLENTY OF BREAKS TO ALLOW AIRMASS TO HEAT AND BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE IN THE VCNTY OF THIS BNDRY THROUGH THE PM HRS...THUS
PROVIDING A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR STMS. WRN HALF OF CWA SEES MORE
CLDS...BUT STILL UNSTABLE. MODIFIED SOUNDINGS FOR MOB AT THE NOON HR
WITH TMAX AT 73 YIELDS LI -5...CAPES TO 1200 J/KG AND FVRBLE WET BULB
ZEROS AT 9300 FT FOR HAIL POTENTIAL. SLGT RISK OF SVR STMS TDY AND
TONIGHT ACRS MOST OF CWA.  BY EVENING RUC DATA SHOWS A MOD MID LVL
VORT LOBE IN SW FLOW EJECTING TO THE NE OUT OF SE TX WHICH WL ENHANCE
DYNAMICAL LIFT AND PCPN THIS EVE. ANOTHER NIGHT OF FOG AS WELL...IN
BETWEEN SHWRS.  NO CHGS TO FCST. 10

ALZ051>064-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-FLZ001>006-071200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR
SOUTHWEST AL...NORTHWEST FL AND SOUTHEAST MS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1110 AM CST FRI MAR 6 1998

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST...

A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES
MOVES LITTLE THROUGH TONIGHT.  SATELLITE DATA SHOWS RAIN COOLED AIR
FROM MORNING SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS
OF ALABAMA...PUSHING SOUTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE
NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.  ALSO...A MIX OF
SUN AND CLOUDS EAST OF A LINE FROM THE MOUTH OF MOBILE BAY TO
COFFEEVILE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE WARM...MOIST...UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. THUS...STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME
HAIL...BRIEF STRONG GUSTY WINDS...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWPOURS.  SOME STORMS COULD EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS.

TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND WILL ENHANCE FURTHER SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT
MAINLY DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS ON FRIDAY.  ALSO...WITH THE AMOUNT OF
GROUND MOISTURE PRESENT FROM RECENT RAINS...AREAS OF DENSE
FOG...REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO A MILE OR LESS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT IN BETWEEN AREAS OF PRECIPITATION.

STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD REMAIN ON
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THROUGH TONIGHT.

ALZ051>064-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-FLZ001>006-071200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR
SOUTHWEST AL...NORTHWEST FL AND SOUTHEAST MS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1110 AM CST FRI MAR 6 1998

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST...

A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES
MOVES LITTLE THROUGH TONIGHT.  SATELLITE DATA SHOWS RAIN COOLED AIR
FROM MORNING SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS
OF ALABAMA...PUSHING SOUTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE
NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.  ALSO...A MIX OF
SUN AND CLOUDS EAST OF A LINE FROM THE MOUTH OF MOBILE BAY TO
COFFEEVILE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE WARM...MOIST...UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. THUS...STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME
HAIL...BRIEF STRONG GUSTY WINDS...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWPOURS.  SOME STORMS COULD EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS.

TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND WILL ENHANCE FURTHER SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT
MAINLY DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS ON FRIDAY.  ALSO...WITH THE AMOUNT OF
GROUND MOISTURE PRESENT FROM RECENT RAINS...AREAS OF DENSE
FOG...REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO A MILE OR LESS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT IN BETWEEN AREAS OF PRECIPITATION.

STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD REMAIN ON
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THROUGH TONIGHT.