Severe Thunderstorm Warning 281, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
329 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 1998

MAIN CONCERN IN THE NEXT 18 HOURS IS TIMING OF FRONTAL/DRYLINE
PASSAGE..POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX AND FLOODING IN SE/CEN KS. SECONDARY
CONCERNS FROM 24-48 HRS ARE TEMPS/PCPN CHANCES.

18Z SFC MAP SHOWS MUCH OF CWA NOW UNDER WARM SECTOR WITH LAPS DATA
INDICATING CAPES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG. PROFILERS ALSO SHOWING
INCREASING MID LVL WIND ADVECTING INTO THE AREA PROVIDING FOR AN
IMPRESSIVE SHEAR PROFILER WITH HELICITIES RUNNING IN EXCESS OF 200
M/S^2. WITH DRYLINE PUSHING EAST INTO 70+ DEG DEWPOINT FEEL SVR
POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING DESPITE CLOUD COVER
AND WILL CONTINUE SVR WORDING IN ZONE PACKAGE AND GO ABV GUIDANCE
NUMBERS FOR POPS. WRN ZONES FLIRTING WITH WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT WITH PROFILERS SHOWING SLIGHTLY LIGHTER 85H WINDS
ADVECTING NORTH INTO THE AREA WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW.

AS FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL IN SE/CEN KS...WITH STREAMS/RIVERS ALREADY
NEAR BANKFUL OR SLIGHTLY IN FLOOD AND PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5
INCHES ALONG WITH GOOD 850-700MB THICKNESS DIFLUENCE FEEL TSRA WILL
TRAIN/BACKBUILD ACRS ERN PTNS OF CENTRAL KS AND SE KS. AS A RESULT
WILL CARRY FFA TONIGHT IN CENTRAL KS...AND THROUGH MONDAY IN SE
ZONES.

LEANED TWD THE NGM/AVN SOLUTION THIS FCST PACKAGE AS ETA APPEARS TO
PUSH DRYLINE TOO FAST THROUGH FCST AREA AND CUTS OFF UPPER LOW TOO
FAR EAST CONSIDERING THE ABUNDANCE OF UPPER ENERGY STILL ON THE WEST
SIDE OF NEGATIVELY TILTED TROF.

FOR MONDAY...WILL CONTINUE POPS IN SE KS WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUES AHD OF FRONT...MAINLY EARLY IN THE DAY. MEANWHILE...LATEST
FCST LOOKS ON TRACK. ALSO...WILL DROP HIGH TEMPS DOWN A CATEGORY IN
SC KS CONSIDERING AMOUNT OF CAA BEHIND SYSTEM. WITH DWPTS EXPECTED
TO DROP WELL INTO 40S MONDAY NIGHT...POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO BOTTOM
OUT EXISTS. HOWEVER WITH REGION STILL UNDER 85H CYCLONIC FLOW
CONCERNED ABOUT THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS INHIBITING RADIATIONAL COOLING.
AS A RESULT WILL LEAN TWD WARMER FWC NUMBERS FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT.

85H THERMAL TROF REMAINS IN PLACE OVER FORECAST AREA TUESDAY...SO
DESPITE SMALL SFC RIDGE OVER THE AREA WON/T WARM TEMPS UP MUCH MORE
FROM MONDAY/S FCST HIGHS. AVN ROTATES NEXT SHORTWAVE THROUGH AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT BEST WAA/OVERRUNNING LOOKS TO BE ACRS SE KS SO
WILL LIMIT POPS TO THIS REGION.

THANKS TO TOP/SGF FOR COORD.

FCSTID = 12
ICT   56  66  49  65 /  80  10   5   5
HUT   54  66  47  65 /  80  10   5   5
EWK   56  66  49  65 /  80  10   5   5
EQA   57  66  49  65 /  80  10   5   5
WLD   56  66  49  65 /  80  10   5   5
RSL   50  62  42  63 /  60  10   5   5
GBD   50  62  42  63 /  60  10   5   5
SLN   54  64  45  64 /  80  20   5   5
MPR   54  64  45  64 /  80  20   5   5
CFV   66  70  51  66 /  80  30  10  10
CNU   66  70  51  66 /  80  30  10  10
K88   66  70  51  66 /  80  30  10  10

.ICT...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 700 AM CDT FOR ZONES
KSZ049...KSZ051>053...KSZ070>072...KSZ094>096...KSZ098>100.

HYSELL

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-042030-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1127 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 1998

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN CENTRAL KANSAS:
BARTON       COWLEY      HARVEY        MARION     RENO     SEDGWICK
ELLSWORTH    KINGMAN     MCPHERSON     RUSSELL    SUMNER   CHASE
HARPER       LINCOLN     RICE          SALINE     BUTLER

AND IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS:
ALLEN        ELK          LABETTE      NEOSHO     WOODSON
CHAUTAUQUA   GREENWOOD    MONTGOMERY   WILSON

SYNOPSIS:
A STRONG SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS LATE THIS
MORNING WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM THE LOW THROUGH
CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
ADVANCE SLOWLY NORTHWARD TODAY AS WINDS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE LOW.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS THEN FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL INTERACT WITH VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIR BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. AS A RESULT...THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH A THREAT OF
TORNADOES DUE TO FAVORABLE WINDS IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. LARGE HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TODAY AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

MARIEN/PETERSEN

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>070-082-083-091>094-098-042015-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
215 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 1998

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA IS ACTIVATING OUR SKYWARN
SPOTTER NETWORK.

A SKYWARN OPERATOR IS MONITORING AREA NETWORKS.

THE PRIMARY SKYWARN FREQUENCY IS 146.94 MHZ.

SECONDARY FREQUENCIES ARE ALSO BEING MONITORED AT 146.82 AND 145.13
MHZ.