Severe Thunderstorm Warning 276, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
330 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 1998

STRONG SHORT WAVE TROF MOVG EWD OVER 4 CORNERS EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT MOVES OUT OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TODAY...IN RESPONSE TO A POWERFUL UPR JET MOVG THRU THE BASE
OF THE UPPER TROF. SFC LOW DEVELOPING NEAR TAD...IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK GENERALLY NEWD TODAY ACROSS NWRN KS...REACHING CNTRL NE BY
EVENING. EXPECTING SFC WARM FRONT (FM TX PNHNDL THRU NRN OK AT 06Z)
TO LIFT NWD ACROSS KS TODAY IN RESPONSE TO STRONG WAA. THUS...MUCH
OF FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR BY AFTERNOON WITH SKIES
BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY...AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHICH WL HAVE ENTERED
THE WRN PORTION OF THE STATE. 06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED UPR 60S/LWR
70S DWPTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF WARM FRONT...AND WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE
THESE DWPTS IN S-CNTRL AND SERN KS BY AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG HGT
FALLS OCCURRING DURING DAY...ATMOSPHERE WL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE AND
THE APPROPRIATE WIND SHEAR WL EXIST TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED SVR
CONVECTION WHICH IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS FCST. MAY ALSO
HAVE EARLY AM ELEVATED CONVECTION AFFECT CNTRL KS ZONES FROM STRONG
WAA. WL CARRY LIKELY TERMINOLOGY WITH A MENTION OF SVR IN THE
ZONES.

TIGHTENING SFC-700 MB GRADIENT TODAY MAKES WIND A CONCERN ALSO IN
THE 1ST PD. WL RAISE WINDS INTO 20-30 MPH/GUSTY RANGE OVER S-CNTRL
AND SERN KS AS UPR JET NOSES OVER AREA ALONG WITH SOME SUN AND MIXING.

COLD FRONT SHOULD PROGRESS EWD THRU ERN KS THIS EVENING AS SFC LOW
WINDS UP IN THE NRN PLAINS...ALTHOUGH LOOKS LIKE FRONT WL STALL NEAR
EXTREME SERN KS FOR MONDAY AS ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY WORKS THRU
BACKSIDE OF UPR TROF. WINDS SHOULD STAY UP IN BREEZY/WINDY CATEGORY
TONIGHT CNTRL KS. ANTICIPATING DRY SLOT TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH COOLER CONDITIONS IN STORE.

PREFERRED THE ETA SOLN ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE MOVING SHORT WAVE OUT INTO
PLAINS TOO FAST TODAY. IN LINE WITH FWC TEMPS...ALTHOUGH WL TRIM A
FEW DEG OFF MONDAY/S HIGHS.

FCSTID = 9/CARUSO

ICT   79  55  70  50 /  60  40  20  40
HUT   78  53  68  49 /  60  30  20  40
EWK   78  54  69  50 /  60  40  20  40
EQA   79  54  70  50 /  60  40  20  40
WLD   80  55  70  50 /  60  40  20  40
RSL   69  50  63  45 /  60  30  20  40
GBD   70  50  64  46 /  60  30  20  40
SLN   70  51  65  45 /  60  30  20  40
MPR   72  51  65  46 /  60  30  20  40
CFV   80  56  71  52 /  60  60  30  40
CNU   79  56  71  52 /  60  60  30  40
K88   78  55  70  52 /  60  60  30  40

.ICT...NONE.

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-042030-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1127 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 1998

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN CENTRAL KANSAS:
BARTON       COWLEY      HARVEY        MARION     RENO     SEDGWICK
ELLSWORTH    KINGMAN     MCPHERSON     RUSSELL    SUMNER   CHASE
HARPER       LINCOLN     RICE          SALINE     BUTLER

AND IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS:
ALLEN        ELK          LABETTE      NEOSHO     WOODSON
CHAUTAUQUA   GREENWOOD    MONTGOMERY   WILSON

SYNOPSIS:
A STRONG SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS LATE THIS
MORNING WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM THE LOW THROUGH
CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
ADVANCE SLOWLY NORTHWARD TODAY AS WINDS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE LOW.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS THEN FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL INTERACT WITH VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIR BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. AS A RESULT...THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH A THREAT OF
TORNADOES DUE TO FAVORABLE WINDS IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. LARGE HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TODAY AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

MARIEN/PETERSEN

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>070-082-083-091>094-098-042015-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
215 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 1998

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA IS ACTIVATING OUR SKYWARN
SPOTTER NETWORK.

A SKYWARN OPERATOR IS MONITORING AREA NETWORKS.

THE PRIMARY SKYWARN FREQUENCY IS 146.94 MHZ.

SECONDARY FREQUENCIES ARE ALSO BEING MONITORED AT 146.82 AND 145.13
MHZ.