Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
945 AM CST WED JAN 21 1998

SWODY1 EXPLAINS THE MESS OVR FA QUITE THOROUGHLY. 12Z UA ANAL
INDICATE STEEP (700-500MB) LAPSE RATE APPROACHING FM THE SOUTH...
AND LF QUAD OF SRN BRANCH JET DOING SAME. CYCLONIC LOWER LVL FLOW
CSTL RGN EVIDENT W/WEAK INVERTED TROF. DEWPOINTS MID 60S AND HIGHER
JUST S OF FA. 850 MB FLOW SHOULD STRENGTHEN BUT STRONGEST FLOW SHOULD
BE JUST E OF FA THIS EVE. LCH/CRP SOUNDING WL BE POTENT AS CAP ERODES
LATER TODAY. AFOS QPFERD INDICATED MAX RAINFALL AMOUNTS 2-4 INCHES
EXTREME ERN TX TO LA AREA. WL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON ERN ZNS AS
THIS RGN WL BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE. WL PUT OUT NEW SPS O$N SVR WX THREAT
AND HVY RAIN SHORTLY MNLY POLISHING OFF PREV ONE.

PRELIMS...
CLL T/T>RW C/C 66/49/53/39 6532
IAH T/T>RW C/C 68/50/54/39 7742  PSBL SVR AFTN-EVNG
GLS T/T>RW C/C 68/53/56/43 8842  PSBL SVR AFTN-EVNG

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ178-179-199-200-210>214-226-
227-235>238-212300-

SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1050 AM CST WED JAN 21 1998

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE
OUTLOOK AREA IS MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS TO CONROE TO
LIVINGSTON LINE.  SOME CITIES INCLUDED IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA ARE
HOUSTON... LIBERTY... GALVESTON... ANGLETON... RICHMOND... WHARTON
AND BAY CITY.

A WARM...MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT
OVER THE COASTAL SECTIONS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO SPREAD
ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE INLAND.  THE WARM MOIST AIR WILL INTERACT WITH
A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME STORMS
POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE AND/OR PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER OR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE FROM
EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WHEN THE INSTABILITY AND
UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS ARE THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE PRIMARY THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

SOME TRAINING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN AND AROUND THE WARM
FRONT IS POSSIBLE WITH EXPECTED RAINFALL RATES AVERAGING AROUND 1/2
INCH WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE UNDER THE
TRAINING STORMS.  WITH GROUNDS STILL MOIST FROM RAINS LAST WEEK...
HEAVY RAINS COULD RUNOFF QUICKLY AND POOL IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS.  THIS
RAPID PONDING OF WATERS WILL BRING A THREAT OF FLOOD AND FLASH
FLOODING TO THE OUTLOOK AREA.  MOTORISTS ARE REMINDED NOT TO DRIVE
YOUR VEHICLE INTO WATER COVERED ROADWAYS.

ALL MARINE INTEREST SHOULD ALSO REMAIN ALERT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE BAYS AND COASTAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND SKYWARN SPOTTERS SHOULD KEEP
INFORMED ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER THREAT AND BE PREPARED FOR
POSSIBLE ACTIVATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

REMEMBER...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE EITHER HIGH WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 55 MILES AN HOUR OR LARGE HAIL IN EXCESS OF 3/4 OF AN INCH.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND VERY
DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL NEWS NETWORK FOR THE
LATEST UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.