Flash Flood Warning 4, NWS State College, PA

CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
228 AM EST THU JAN 8 1998

...ZONE SUGGESTIONS...
...PIT EXTEND FLOOD WATCH TO COVER EASTERN COUNTIES INCLUDING
BEDFORD, FULTON, FRANKLIN, HUNTINGDON, MIFFLIN AND JUNIATA.

...PHL CONSIDER EXTENDING FLOOD WATCH FOR HAR AREA AND SOUTH.

...DISCUSSION...
LARGE AREA OF RAIN OVER NORTHERN PA MOVING STEADILY NORTH.  AREAS
IN SW PA ALREADY OUT OF PRECIP AREA.  CENT/SOUTH-CENT PA COULD BE
TROUBLE SPOT AS LARGE AREA OF PRECIP EXTENDS FROM MD PANHANDLE
SOUTH ALONG APP MTS THRU WESTERN NC TO FL PANHANDLE.  AREA MOVING
NORTH WITH SLIGHT EAST MOVEMENT. NEW PRELIM 94Q OUT AND HPC SHOWING
A 2 SWATH FROM LAUREL HIGHLANDS TO CENTRAL PA.

RADAR DOING POOR JOB OF ESTIMATING PRECIP MAY HAVE TO DO WITH
TROPICAL ORIGIN OF MOISTURE SUPPLY. WOULD BE INTERESTING TO SEE
WHAT TROPICAL Z/R WOULD HAVE PRODUCED FOR PRECIP TOTALS.  HAVE
REPORTS OF OVER AN INCH TOTAL IN IPT AREA SINCE BEGINNING OF RAIN.
IFLOWS RPTS HAVE AREAS IN CLEARFIELD, CENTRE, CAMBRIA, AND MCKEAN
OVER 1.5 TOTAL.  THESE AREAS ARE APPROACHING FFG FOR 6 AND 12 HR.
ENHANCED PRECIP NORTH OF PIT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN TIER OF PA
WHERE ALREADY HAD SOME REPORTS OF MINOR FLOODING (WARREN CO HAD 1
ROAD CLOSED).

CONTINUED FLOW FROM SOUTH WITH DWPTS IN MID 50S WEST PA AND LOW 60S
IN SOUTH-CENT PA AND MD...AMAZING.  NGM SHOWS 50-60KT 850 JET INTO
SOUTHERN PA BY 12Z TO KEEP PRECIP GOING.  NICE UPPER JET LIFTING
NORTH OF GREAT LAKES AND COUPLED WITH WEAKER JET ALIGNED ALONG
SPINE OF APP. MTNS. MODELS AGAIN DIFFER ON TRACK OF LOW WITH MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO BEING THE AVN/NGM.

AFTER DAYBREAK, JET STRUCTURE BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD, AND
HOPEFULLY WILL MOVE HEAVIEST RAINFALL EAST PRODUCING A MORE SHOWERY
TYPE OF PRECIP OVER CENT PA.

ONDREJIK