Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY-RUSKIN, FL
303 AM EDT WED APR 23 1997

U/L TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WITH DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS.  COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST TO THE
FL PANHANDLE.  ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IS VERY UNSTABLE
WITH STRONG INFLOW OF GULF MOISTURE.  00Z TBW SOUNDING HAD AN LI OF -7
AND CAPE OF ABOUT 2600.  BUT MOISTURE WAS VERY LIMITED CONFINED TO THE
LOWEST 100 MB WHICH IS ALSO CONFIRMED BY LARGE DARK AREA OVER THE FL
PENINSULA ON  W/V IMAGERY.  BUT MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY...AND SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED IN THE PAST
HOUR AS FAR SOUTH AS PINELLAS AND HILLSBOUROUGH COUNTIES.  THIS TREND
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

EXPECT LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN FA AROUND MID
MORNING...INTO THE CENTRAL FA AROUND NOON...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN FA BY
MID AFTERNOON. THE LINE OF STORMS HAS HAD A HISTORY OF PRODUCING
SEVERE WEATHER...AND A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE IN OUR REGION TODAY
WITH THE MAIN THREAT STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLE HAIL.
ALTHOUGH MAIN U/L SUPPORT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN FA AND L/L CONVERGENCE WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME...ATMOSPHERE
WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR LINE TO PERSIST AND MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION.

SUGGESTIONS...ADD MENTION THAT A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE TODAY.

OGLESBY

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-504-505-231600-
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA RUSKIN FL
600 AM EDT WED APR 23 1997

        ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM JACKSONVILLE TO
25 MILES NORTHWEST OF CROSS CITY AND INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO.  THE THUNDERSTORMS WERE IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA.  THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL PUSH INTO LEVY COUNTY EARLY THIS
MORNING.  THE LINE WILL MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA BY LATE
MORNING...AND INTO THE FT MYERS AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE PENINSULA IS VERY UNSTABLE.  DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATES A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WITH WINDS AT 1000 FT FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AT 40 TO 50 MPH FEEDING DEEP TROPICAL AIR INTO THE LINE OF
STORMS.  THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH...LARGE HAIL...POSSIBLE TORNADOES...VERY
HEAVY RAIN...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

ALL RESIDENTS AND MARINERS PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD STAY
ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS.  MARINERS MUST REACT
QUICKLY AND RETURN TO SAFE HARBOR WHEN THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES.
ALL SKYWARN STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ARE
ASKED TO RELAY ANY REPORTS OF ADVERSE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE IN RUSKzIN.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AND
POSSIBLE WARNINGS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

OGLESBY

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-504-505-231600-
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA RUSKIN FL
600 AM EDT WED APR 23 1997

        ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM JACKSONVILLE TO
25 MILES NORTHWEST OF CROSS CITY AND INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO.  THE THUNDERSTORMS WERE IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA.  THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL PUSH INTO LEVY COUNTY EARLY THIS
MORNING.  THE LINE WILL MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA BY LATE
MORNING...AND INTO THE FT MYERS AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE PENINSULA IS VERY UNSTABLE.  DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATES A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WITH WINDS AT 1000 FT FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AT 40 TO 50 MPH FEEDING DEEP TROPICAL AIR INTO THE LINE OF
STORMS.  THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH...LARGE HAIL...POSSIBLE TORNADOES...VERY
HEAVY RAIN...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

ALL RESIDENTS AND MARINERS PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD STAY
ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS.  MARINERS MUST REACT
QUICKLY AND RETURN TO SAFE HARBOR WHEN THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES.
ALL SKYWARN STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ARE
ASKED TO RELAY ANY REPORTS OF ADVERSE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE IN RUSKIN.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AND
POSSIBLE WARNINGS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

OGLESBY