Flash Flood Warning 30, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
206 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 1997

SATELLITE VIS IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNINGS MCS. AT 1 PM THIS BOUNDARY WAS
LOCATED FROM JUNCTION TO CENTRAL VAL VERDE COUNTY EXTENDING NORTHWEST
TO NEAR THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS. WITH SUNSHINE RETURNING TO THE AREA
AND MOISTURE REMAINING ABUNDANT BEHIND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...EXPECT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO INCREASE OVER THE NORTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU BY LATE AFTERNOON. SATELLITE CONFIRMS A SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE
OVER THE RIO GRANDE AND PECOS RIVER BASINS MOVING NORTH INTO THIS
AREA.

ETA AND NGM MODELS WERE BOTH ABLE TO DETECT THE VORT LOBE FROM THE
MCS AND THE SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTH FROM MEXICO. WITH DOPPLER PROFILES
VERIFYING BETTER WITH THE MID LEVEL WINDS FORECAST BY THE NGM MODEL
AT 18Z WILL FOLLOW THE NGM PRECIP FORECAST IN THE FIRST PERIOD WITH
BEST POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA. STILL BELIEVE ETA FORECAST FOR HEAVY RAINS SHIFTING
TOWARDS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AS THE MCS BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SHIFT
SOUTHEAST. IN THE 2ND PERIOD MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON SETTING UP AN
850 MB THETA-E MAX ORIENTED NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS WEST TEXAS WITH A
SECONDARY RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE MIDLAND AREA TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
EXPECT FOCUS FOR RAIN TO SHIFT BACK OVER THE AREA BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON SO WOULD PREFER TO CONTINUE FFA OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU
AND POSSIBLY ADDING IRION COUNTY. OTHER AREAS CURRENTLY UNDER A WATCH
SHOULD BE ALLEVIATED BY THIS EVENING WITH A FLASH FLOOD THREAT
RETURNING TOMORROW.

WITH AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WILL LEAN TOWARD AVATION GUIDANCE FOR
TOMORROWS HIGHS. WILL STAY CLOSE TO LOWS FROM BOTH GUIDANCES.

ABI 062/080 44
SJT 064/078 55
JCT 067/082 45

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TEXAS
1210 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 1997

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0330 AM    ROSCOE                    TX   GOLFBALL HAIL
06/06/97   NOLAN

0351 AM    FM 126                    TX   QUARTER SIZE HAIL
06/06/97   TAYLOR

0730 AM    FM 89 AT 277              TX   FLOODING...ROAD IMPASSIBLE
06/06/97   TAYLOR

1108 AM    COLEMAN                   TX   FLOODING...CARS STALLED IN
06/06/97   COLEMAN                        COLEMAN

1148 AM    N RICHLAND SPR            TX   FLOODING...FM 45 AND FM 500
06/06/97    SAN SABA                            CLOSED DUE TO FHLOOD

TXZ049-053-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-071335-

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
230 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 1997

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
OVER AREAS SOUTH OF A SONORA TO MASON LINE...

...SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
THIRD OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH FLOODING
RAINS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT...

DAYTIME HEATING WILL INTERACT WITH ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ALOFT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

DUE TO WEAK LEVELS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY
ALOFT...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS
OVER AREAS NORTH OF A SONORA TO MASON LINE. WITH LIGHT WINDS
ALOFT...THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. THIS
WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS. HEAVIEST
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF A STERLING CITY TO
SAN ANGELO TO MASON LINE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE REMAINDER
OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. ALTHOUGH THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WIDELY SCATTERED...GROUNDS WILL REMAIN SATURATED OVER THESE AREAS TO
PRODUCE A FLOODING THREAT.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED. FOR THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND NEW
MEXICO OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT LBBSPSMAF. FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS... THE
WESTERN PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS... NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS... AND SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS OUTLOOKS SEE PRODUCTS LBBSPSLBB... OKCSPSOKC...
FTWSPSFTW... AND SATSPSSAT.

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