Flash Flood Warning 20, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
229 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 1997

RIDGE IN CENTRAL US...WITH AXIS ALONG LEE OF ROCKY MOUNTAINS...WAS
PRODUCING NEARLY MERIDIANAL FLOW THIS MORNING. FURTHER TO
WEST...WATER VAPOR INDICATED UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS BEING CUT OFF IN
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...WITH SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

ETA AND NGM MODELS PICK UP ON SHORTWAVE BUT BOTH MAY BE SLOW IN ITS
MOVEMENT AROUND LOW. SHORTWAVE SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF CWA IN ANY CASE.
BOTH MODELS DO PICK UP ON SEVERAL WEAKER DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH CWA MOVING UP FROM THE BIG BEND THIS AFTERNOON...AND SLOWLY
MOVING OVER REGION TONIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH WEAKENING 700 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. NGM FORECAST SOUNDINGS BREAKS CAP AT
19Z FOR SAN ANGELO AND ABILENE...WHICH HAS NOT BEEN DONE THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS. MODELS ALSO BRING IN ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AT LOWER
LEVELS...WITH THE ETA MODEL THE MOST PROGRESSIVE...BRING IN 80
PERCENT RH AT 850 MB BEGINNING AT 18Z.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL PRODUCE SLOW MOVING STORMS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL. STORMS EARLIER THIS EVENING JUST SOUTH OF
CWA PRODUCED LOCALIZED 3 INCH ESTIMATED STORM TOTALS.

WILL SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER
AND MOISTURE TODAY. FWC GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE.

ABI 084/065 23
JCT 085/067 23
SJT 085/067 33

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