Flash Flood Warning 22, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
229 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 1997

RIDGE IN CENTRAL US...WITH AXIS ALONG LEE OF ROCKY MOUNTAINS...WAS
PRODUCING NEARLY MERIDIANAL FLOW THIS MORNING. FURTHER TO
WEST...WATER VAPOR INDICATED UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS BEING CUT OFF IN
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...WITH SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

ETA AND NGM MODELS PICK UP ON SHORTWAVE BUT BOTH MAY BE SLOW IN ITS
MOVEMENT AROUND LOW. SHORTWAVE SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF CWA IN ANY CASE.
BOTH MODELS DO PICK UP ON SEVERAL WEAKER DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH CWA MOVING UP FROM THE BIG BEND THIS AFTERNOON...AND SLOWLY
MOVING OVER REGION TONIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH WEAKENING 700 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. NGM FORECAST SOUNDINGS BREAKS CAP AT
19Z FOR SAN ANGELO AND ABILENE...WHICH HAS NOT BEEN DONE THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS. MODELS ALSO BRING IN ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AT LOWER
LEVELS...WITH THE ETA MODEL THE MOST PROGRESSIVE...BRING IN 80
PERCENT RH AT 850 MB BEGINNING AT 18Z.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL PRODUCE SLOW MOVING STORMS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL. STORMS EARLIER THIS EVENING JUST SOUTH OF
CWA PRODUCED LOCALIZED 3 INCH ESTIMATED STORM TOTALS.

WILL SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER
AND MOISTURE TODAY. FWC GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE.

ABI 084/065 23
JCT 085/067 23
SJT 085/067 33

04

TXZ049-053-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-070505-

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
600 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 1997

...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH THIS EVENING...

A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY. A FEW OF THESE STORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE...HOWEVER THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM THE STORMS
WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AS WEAK WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM THIS MORNING WILL BE IN THE BIG
COUNTRY AND CONCHO VALLEY...SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 FROM COLORADO
CITY TO ABILENE AND BAIRD...AS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD.

WITH SURFACE HEATING...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGHOUT WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS
WILL BE WEST OF A SWEETWATER...SAN ANGELO...SONORA LINE AS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTH FROM THE BIG BEND. AGAIN THE
GREATEST THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

FOR THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT
LBBSPSMAF. FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS... THE WESTERN PARTS OF NORTH
TEXAS... NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS... AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS OUTLOOKS SEE
PRODUCTS LBBSPSLBB... OKCSPSOKC... FTWSPSFTW... AND SATSPSSAT.