Severe Thunderstorm Warning 74, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
300 PM CST THU FEB 20 1997

CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS AND SATELITE LOOPS SHOWING DEEP LOW TO THE
WNW MOVING NE'WARD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. TO THE S AND SE TRAILING
COLD FRNT AND SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE MS RVR. WITH
DEWPTS NEARING THE UPPER 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE CST OF AL/MS IN
ADVANCE OF APPROACHING SYSTEM...VAD WINDS INDICATING SOUTHERLY FLOW
NEAR 50KTS JUST ABOVE 1K AND RRQ OF UPPER JET BECOMING IN LINE
EXPECT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
AMMOUNTS WITH APPROACHING SQUALL LINE. 03Z MESO ETA INDICATING LOW
CAPES INITIALLY WITH MOISTURE REMAINING DEEP THROUGH THE MID LEVLS
THRU 18Z FOLLOWED BY DRY AIR INTRUDING IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVLS OVR
LOWER LA BY MIDDAY MOVING OVER MUCH OF THE FA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW STILL IN PLACE OVER THE REGION AT THIS TIME
EXPECT PLENTY OF LOW LEVL MOISTURE TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE TS TO DEVELOPEMENT. LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES COULD ACCOMPANY
SOME OF THE STRONGER CELLS THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPS ALOFT DROP WELL
BELOW MINUS 10 AT 500 MB...ASSOCIATED WITH COOLER/DRYER ADVECTING IN
ALOFT. CURRENT FCST LOOKS GOOD FOR MOST OF THE FA THOUGH SEVERE WX
MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS FOR EASTERN PARTS OF THE FA.
TEMPS AND POPS ON TRACK THOUGH I'M 100 PERCENT SURE THAT IS GOING TO
RAIN IN MOB THIS MORNING. FROPA STILL LOOKS TO BE AFTER 06Z SAT OVR
THE WESTERN HALF PUSHING EAST OF THE FA BY 12Z. LOW CLDS WILL HOLD
OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON SAT.

MOB 73/52/59/34 9500  PNS 73/55/58/37 9600
DTS 74/58/62/40 8610  EVR 72/51/57/31 9500 32

ALZ051>64-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-FLZ001>006-211200-

AREAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR
SOUTHWEST AL...NORTHWEST FL AND SOUTHEAST MS...MORNING UPDATE...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
352 AM CST FRI FEB 21 1997

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THURSDAY HAS INCREASED
THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTHWEST MOVING INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TODAY WILL GIVE WAY FOR A GOOD CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING...RETURNING AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS A
STRONG FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR 50 KNOTS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE IN
CONJUNCTION WITH WARM...MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR SOME OF
THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A WIDE SQUALL LINE MOVING INTO THE
REGION THIS MORNING COULD BECOME SEVERE. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT THIS MORNING. ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND OVER THE GULF LARGE WATERSPOUTS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE TODAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE LIKELY LATER TODAY.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL AND SEVERE WEATHER SPOTTERS SHOULD
STAY TUNED FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEAHTHER UPDATES FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY.