Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS Lake Charles, LA

SOUTHEAST TEXAS..SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
140 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 1997

MID-LEVEL VORT FORMED BY CONVECTION OVERNIGHT SHOWING UP WELL
IN SE TX THIS AFTERNOON ON VISIBLE SAT LOOP. THIS FEATURE IS
BASICALLY STATIONARY AND IS ENHANCING TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
WESTERN EDGE OF WARNING AREA. AFTER LOOKING AT 12Z MODELS...
WOULD LIKE TO KEEP FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SE TX TONIGHT BECAUSE
AXIS OF VORT MAX FROM N CEN TX TO WESTERN GULF PROGGED TO SHIFT
ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE NE. MODELS DO WEAKEN FEATURE BY END OF
PERIOD...SO WILL DECREASE POPS SLIGHTLY WITH TIME...HOWEVER ATMOS
WILL REMAIN MOIST AND POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE WITH DAY-TIME HEATING
SO WILL KEEP CHC POPS THRU PD. BOUNDARIES CREATED BY ON-GOING
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY GENERATE ADDITIONAL TSTMS THRU THE EVENING.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL CONTINUE AREAWIDE AS MID-LEVEL
FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS THE RESULT.

UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL CHANGE BY END OF PERIOD AS SW LOW LIFTS
NE INTO S PLAINS AT 48HRS. THIS WILL BREAK DOWN THE PERSISTENT
RIDGE ALLOWING FOR A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE S U.S.

AS FOR TEMPS...GUIDANCE IS REASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN MID 80S UNDER
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

1

BPT 72/85/72/86 5(EVE)534
LCH 72/86/72/86 4(EVE)434  LFT 72/87/72/87 4(EVE)434
AEX 68/84/69/84 3(EVE)323