Severe Thunderstorm Warning 67, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
249 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 1997

...NUMEROUS PROBLEMS ARE FACING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...

TO START THINGS OFF...THE MODELS DIFFER GREATLY IN THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION THAT IS TO AFFECT THE CWA.  THE NGM
MODEL IS THE DRIER OF THE TWO AND THE ETA IS EXTREMELY WET.  THIS
FOLLOWS THE GENERAL BIAS OF THE TWO MODELS.  HOWEVER...I FEEL THAT
THE NGM IS SLIGHTLY TOO DRY...WHILE THE ETA MODEL IS WAY TOO
WET...SO I WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW A MIXTURE OF THE TWO WHEN DEALING
WITH PRECIPITATION.  BOTH MODELS DID HANDLE THE TEMPERATURES
SIMILARLY...SO I WILL NOT VARY TO MUCH FROM THE FWC MODELS.

THIS EVENING LOOKS RATHER ROUGH AS THE INSTABILITY OF THE
ATMOSPHERE IS ON THE VERGE OF GOING OFF THE SCALE.  THE SURFACE LOW
SEEMS TO HANG IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH F36 AND THEN MOVE INTO THE
TUL VICINITY BY F48.  THIS MOVEMENT OF THE LOW WILL BRING THUNDER TO
THE CWA THIS EVENING AT ALL SECTIONS.  BUT FOR OVERNIGHT...THE WINDS
IN CENTRAL KANSAS LOOK TO SWING AROUND TO THE EAST...WHICH SHOULD
PRODUCE SOME UPSLOPE FLOW AND POSSIBLY FORM A LOW STRATUS DECK AND
DENSE FOG TOWARDS MORNING.  ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT...THINGS SHOULD CALM
DOWN...AS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OCCUR.  ON MEMORIAL DAY...ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL.  FOR NOW...IT LOOKS AS
THOUGH THE RAIN WILL BE LIMITED TO THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE
CWA...AS THE FLOW SHOULD BE CYCLONIC IN NATURE AND NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
THUNDER.  IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
GENERALLY BE THE CALL...ALBEIT BETTER IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTIONS.
THE LOW WILL BE DRIFTING TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY...SHIFTING THE
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION EASTWARD AS WELL.  THE LAST TWO PERIODS WILL
GENERALLY BE CLOUDY WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AT H5.  THE
SHORTWAVE WILL COMBINE WITH GOOD MOISTURE AND GENERATE A CONTINUED
CHANCE FOR RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE CWA.  ENOUGH
LIFT MAY BE PRESENT IN THE SOUTHERN HALF TO PRODUCE A CLAP OR TWO OF
THUNDER.

WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON SOUTHEAST KANSAS FOR THE POSSIBLE
ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.  IF THE
QPF VALUES VERIFY...THE SECOND ROUND OF PRECIPITATION COULD POSE
PROBLEMS WITH THE LOCAL RIVERS.

CHANCE

RSL   057/075 048/068     01865
SLN   059/075 050/070     01865
ICT   062/082 056/073 053 01843
HUT   060/079 053/071     01843
CNU   063/085 057/075     01865

KSZ032-033-047>053-O67>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-252145-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
419 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 1997

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IBN WICHITA IS ACTIVATING OUR
SKYWARN SPOTTER NETWORK.

A SKYWARN OPERATOR IS MONITORING AREA NETWORKS.

THE PRIMARY SKYWARN FREQUENCY IS 146.94 MHZ.

SECONDARY FREQUENCIES ARE ALSO BEING MONITORED ON 146.82 AND 145.13 MHZ.

CHANCE

KSZ032-033-047>053-O67>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-252145-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
419 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 1997

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA IS ACTIVATING OUR
SKYWARN SPOTTER NETWORK.

A SKYWARN OPERATOR IS MONITORING AREA NETWORKS.

THE PRIMARY SKYWARN FREQUENCY IS 146.94 MHZ.

SECONDARY FREQUENCIES ARE ALSO BEING MONITORED ON 146.82 AND 145.13 MHZ.

CHANCE