Flash Flood Warning 4, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
324 PM CDT THU JUN 12 1997

SHORT TERM...
TSRA CHANCES BIGGEST CONCERN TO ADDRESS IN THE SHORT TERM. 18Z SFC
ANALYSIS SHOWS MAIN TROF LOCATED FROM NE TO SC AND INTO SW KANSAS
WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LYING E-W JUST SOUTH OF EMPORIA. ALONG THIS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY 70+ DWPTS HAVE POOLED AND 19Z ADAP PRODUCTS SHOWS
BEST LL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THIS AREA. WITH SUCH COPIOUS
MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH BOUNDARIES AND LI/S BLO -8...SCT/WDLY
SCT EVENING CONVECTION POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...MODIFIED 12Z OUN
SOUNDING STILL INDICATES SOME CIN TO BE OVERCOME AND 85H PROFILERS
SHOW FLOW IS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...THUS CONVERGENCE NOT THAT GREAT.

BETTER CHC FOR TSRA EXSISTS LATE TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ACROSS CENTRAL
NM PER WATER VAPOR PIX IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
12Z FRI. ETA MUCH FASTER THAN NGM/AVN WITH THIS FEATURE...AND
CONSIDERING SOME UPPER ENERGY IS STILL ON THE BACK SIDE OF UPPER
TROF...PERFERRED SLOWER AVN/NGM FORECAST. STILL...EXCELLENT 30H
DIFFLUENCE WHICH IS HELPING TO TRIGGER TSRA ACROSS EASTERN CO WILL
SHIFT INTO CNTL/SC KANSAS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT STORMS THAT DEVELOP TO
MOVE E OR ESE ALONG THETA-E RIDGE. THUS BEST CHC FOR TSRA WILL BE
ACRS SC/SE KS.

AS FOR LOWS...GENERALLY FOLLOWED GUIDANCE VALUES AS FAN/FWC IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.

HYSELL

LONG TERM...
W/V 6.7 PIX CLRLY DPCT CLSD LO UPSTRS POSND OVR WA/OR CST. ALL 3 MDLS PROG
THE LO TO DROP SLOLY S/SE W/ TM MOVG ALG & JUST E OF CA/NV BDR 24-48 HRS.
BOTH E48 & NG8 PCGS DPCT SFC-H85 FNTL BDNRY ALG KS/OK BDR 24-36 HRS
W/ E48 POSNG BOTH BNDRYS SLGTLY FRTHR S. BOTH PCGS DPCT CLRLY
DEFINED MSTR CHANNEL THRU H85 ALG THE BNDRYS & AS SUCH CONTUANCE OF
30-40% POPS CWA-WIDE WARRANTED THRU TMRW EVNG. BOTH FAN/FWC LWRMAX'S
ABT 1 CAT ACRS THE BOARD TMRW & CNSDRG THE ABV RSNS THIS MAKES
SENSE. TMRW NGT E48 IS MUCH FASTER IN MOVG SFC LO OVR E TX PNHNDL
INTO WRN TN BY SAT MRNG. NG8 & AVN ARE SLOER & WL FOLLOW THESE
LATTER SOLNS FOR 3RD PD, I.E. KPG SFC GRAD MORE ERLY & W/ FNTL BDNRY
STILL IN NEIGHBORHOOD WL CONT CHC POPS TMRW NGT. LTL DIFF IN FAN/FWC
MINS FRI NGT & SEE NO RSN TO DEVIATE.

RSL 059/077 059/081     04333
SLN 063/079 059/083     04333
ICT 064/082 060/084 065 04333
HUT 062/080 059/083     04333
CNU 065/081 062/084     04344

ES

KSZ032-033-047>053-O67>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-130410-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1052 PM CDT THU JUN 12 1997

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA IS ACTIVATING OUR
SKYWARN SPOTTER NETWORK.

A SKYWARN OPERATOR IS MONITORING AREA NETWORKS.

THE PRIMARY SKYWARN FREQUENCY IS 146.94 MHZ.

SECONDARY FREQUENCIES ARE ALSO BEING MONITORED ON 146.82 AND 145.13 MHZ.

HOWERTON