Severe Thunderstorm Warning 110, NWS Grand Forks, ND

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
250 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 1997

UNFORTUNATELY NO GRIDDED DATA AVAILABLE FOR THIS DISCUSSION. MODELS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING MAJOR PCPN EVENT FOR CWFA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PROGGED TO INTENSIFY AND MOVE
THROUGH REGION. BOTH ETA AND NGM TRACK H8 LOW ACROSS ND/SD BORDER AND
WITH STRONG DYNAMICS/AND HIGH PWAT AVAILABLE CWFA IN FAVORABLE POSIT FOR
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS. WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS REGION OVER THE PAST
WEEK AND RESULTING LOW FFG VALUES...GENERALLY BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES
FEEL FLASH FLOOD WATCH NEEDED FOR ALL BUT EXTREME NORTHERN TIER
COUNTIES WHERE GUIDENCE IS BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES AND NOT QUITE AS MUCH
RAIN FALL EXPECTED ACROSS THE BORDER. SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK OF SVR OVR
SOUTH HALF OF CWA AND AFTER DISCUSSION WITH BIS AGREE THAT SVR COULD GO
FARTHER NORTH DEPENDING ON LOW TRACK. SVR WX IS GOING TO CUT THIS
SHORT. MOS TEMPS SEEM IN THE BALL PARK WITH COLDEST TEMPS (LOW TO MID
70S OVR NE ND TO 80 TO 85 IN FFM AREA. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE AS LOW DEEPENS AND APPROACHES REGION.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL AREAS.
FOR DVL...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
HIGH IN THE MID 70S NORTHEAST 15 TO 30 MPH
GFK...TSRA DEVELOPING. HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. HIGH MID 70S. NORTHEAST 15
TO 25.
FAR...OCNL TSRA. HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE. HIGH AROUND 80.
NORTHEAST 15 TO 25.
ROX...TVF...BDE...BJI...TSRA DEVELOPING BY NOON. HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH MID TO UPPER 70S. E 15 TO 25.
DTL...FFM...OCNL TSRA...HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE. HIGH 80 TO 85. E TO SE 15
TO 25 MPH.
VOELKER

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052-053-021200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
640 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 1997

..THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA TODAY...

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS
SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY AND INTO MINNESOTA TONIGHT.  A STRONG SOUTHERLY AIR
FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO FEED MOIST UNSTABLE AIR
NORTHWARD. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE REGION TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING...CLOSEST TO THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. ALSO THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. BECAUSE OF THIS A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED TO TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS ALL OF THE
REGION. SOME AREAS COULD SEE IN EXCESS OF THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL FROM
THESE STORMS.

AN UPDATED SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
IF NEEDED.
VOELKER