Severe Thunderstorm Warning 177, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
315 PM CDT SUN APR 28 1996

LATEST MESONET SHOWS SFC LOW E OF TUL WITH CD FNT EXTENDING SWD
THRU SCNTRL OK.  WM FNT EMANATES FM LOW THRU NE OK/EXTREME NRN AR.
AIRMASS IN WARM SECTOR IS QUITE MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH SFC DWPTS
IN THE M/U 60S AND LIS ABT -3 TO -5.  MRNG SNDGS SHOWED STG CAP FM
ERN TX THRU ERN OK/NW AR...AND THICK CLD CVR HAS PREVENTED CAP FM
BEING BROKEN SO FAR THIS AFTN.  HV SEEN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE OF R-/RW- ACRS FA AND IT SHUD BE JUST A MATTER OF TIME AS
MID LVL COOLING ARRIVES BY EARLY EVENING AND SFC CONVERGENCE
INCREASES VCNTY CD FNT/WM FNT.  PROBABLY WL SEE A SQLN FORM ALG CD
FNT AS IT REACHES FAR ERN OK/NW AR ZNS BY EARLY EVE.  DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE PER AREA PROFILERS/88D VWP...SO PRIMARY
THREAT OF SVR WX SHUD COME FROM LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND.  BASED
ON ETA MVMT OF CD FNT...TSTRMS SHUD BE EXITING FA AFT 06-07Z.

CD FNT PUSHES TO CNTRL/ERN AR BY MON MRNG WITH HIGHER SFC PRES AND
IMPRESSIVE LLVL CAA SPREADING THRU FA.  SHARP/POS TILT UPR TROF MVS
ACRS OK DURG THE DAY AND SHUD KP MOST AREAS UNDER CLD CVR WITH SML
CHCS OF PCPN MAINLY EARLY.  BASICALLY A CLOUDY...WINDY AND
UNSEASONABLY COLD SPRING DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE U40S/L50S.

MAY SEE A FEW BRKS BY LATE IN THE DAY MON...BUT MAIN CLRG WL BE
OVERNGT.  WITH CLRG SKIES AND DIMINISHING WNDS...MOST PLACES WL
DROP WELL INTO THE 30S MON NGT.  TUE SHUD BE NICE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...BREEZY W WNDS AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS.

GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF FWC/FAN NUMBERS FOR TEMPS.  FWC POPS
LOOK PRETTY GD...WITH FAN POPS TOO HIGH FOR MON.

PRELIM NUMBERS:

TUL 46/49 39/70 42-0
FSM 52/54 38/68 8310
MLC 47/54 39/71 52-0
BVO 44/48 38/69 32-0
FYV 45/48 34/64 8310
IDB 56/58 39/67 8410
BYV 44/47 34/62 8310

HODGES

.TUL...
OK..NONE.
AR...NONE.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-029-OKZ054>077-291200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CDT SUN APR 28 1996

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING OVER MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND ALL OF NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS GENERALLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 44.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  AT 1 PM...THE COLD
FRONT WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG INTERSTATE 44.  THE AIR TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE.
HOWEVER...THIS MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE KEPT IN CHECK BY
A LAYER OF RELATIVELY WARM AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE.  HELP WILL BE
NEEDED TO BREAK THROUGH THIS LAYER OF WARM AIR OR CAP.  THE HELP
MAY ARRIVE IN THE FORM OF THE COLD FRONT ITSELF...BUT WILL LIKELY
BE ENHANCED AS AN UPPER ATMOSPHERIC DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA
FROM THE WEST.

SHOULD THE CAP BE BROKEN...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.  THE WIND PROFILE ALOFT IS ONLY MARGINAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES.

EMERGENCYX MANAGEMENT AGENCIES AND STORM SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS WEATHER SITUATION AND BE PREPARED FOR
POSSIBLE ACTIVATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.