Severe Thunderstorm Warning 438, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
400 PM CDT MON OCT 21 1996

COMPLEX OF SVR TSTMS ACRS NE TX AND EXTREME SE OK/SW AR PRODUCING SVRL
HAIL RPTS AND RADAR SHOWING INCREASING CELL ROTATIONS. MORNING HODOGRAPH
ANALYSIS REVEALED INCREASING HELICITY ADDING IN ADJUSTMENTS FOR INCREASED
WIND FIELDS. THIS PLUS RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES ETA WITH BEST SOLN. NGM
CONCENTRATED WX ALONG FNT AND THAT NOT THE CASE WITH FNT NR A PRX TO
DEQ LINE. ALL MODELS AGREE ON BRINGING FNT INTO NW LA ON TUE MRNG.
SYSTEM LIKELY TO TRANSFORM FM A HAILER WITH MESOS TO MORE OF A WIND
EVENT AFT MIDNIGHT AS SPLIT JET FLOW MERGES AND LOSES EXTREME UPR
DIFFLUENCE. LATE EVE TO MIDNIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE HEART OF THE ACTION
WITH RUC AND ETA HAVING HELICITIES OVR 300 ACRS MUCH OF AREA WITH NGM
AND AVN STILL WELL OVR 200. FLOODING A THREAT WITH TRAINING CELLS AND
SOME BLINDING RAINFALL INDICATED BY AN ASOS RPT IN TXK OF .90 INCHES
IN 9 MINUTES! 850 MSTR INDICATES JUST A FEW HOURS OF WRAPAROUND EARLY
TUE BEHIND FNT FOLLOWED BY RAPID CLRG. MODELS AGREE ON TUE HIGH IN
PRE-FNTL EARLY MRNG. NGM HAS LESS PUSH WITH FNT HENCE WRMR TEMPS TUE
WITH MORE AGREEMENT AFTER 1ST PERIOD. COLD AIR STILL SHALLOW AS WITH
PREVIOUS FNTS THIS FALL WITH TEMPS MODERATING BY THU.

SHV 58/58/37/68  7500           MLU 64/67/42/65  6700

VII

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
540 PM CDT MON OCT 21 1996

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0205 PM    NEW BOSTON                TX   1.00 INCH HAIL
10/21/96   BOWIE

0230 PM    NASH                      TX   0.50 INCH HAIL
10/21/96   BOWIE

0231 PM    4 E EMORY                 TX   0.75 INCH HAIL
10/21/96   WOOD

0250 PM    MANDEVILLE                AR   0.50 INCH HAIL
10/21/96   MILLER
.
0255 PM    1 S NEWSOME               TX   0.75 INCH HAIL
10/21/96   CAMP

0300 PM    LEESBURG                  TX   0.75 INCH HAIL
10/21/96   CAMP

0310 PM    HAWKINS                   TX   1.00 INCH HAIL
10/21/96   WOOD

0325 PM    3 W HOPE                  AR   0.50 INCH HAIL
10/21/96   HEMPSTEAD

0338 PM    DANGERFIELD               TX   0.75 INCH HAIL
10/21/96   MORRIS

0340 PM    DANGERFIELD               TX   60 MPH TSTM GUST
10/21/96   MORRIS

0415 PM    LINDEN                    TX   0.75 INCH HAIL
10/21/96   CASS

0415 PM    LINDEN                    TX   60 MPH TSTM GUST
10/21/96   CASS
.
0425 PM    5 NE LINDEN               TX   1.75 INCH HAIL
10/21/96   CASS

0430 PM    ATLANTA                   TX   70 MPH TSTM GUST
10/21/96   CASS                           STRAIGHT LINE WINDS PRODUCED
                                          NUMEROUS REPORTS OF DAMAGE IN
                                          THE CITY INCLUDING DOWNED
                                          TREES AND POWER LINES.

0436 PM    QUEEN CITY                TX   1.75 INCH HAIL
10/21/96   CASS

0525 PM    RODESSA                   LA   0.50 INCH HAIL
10/21/96   CADDO

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