Severe Thunderstorm Warning 424, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
950 AM CDT MON OCT 21 1996

POWERFUL CDFNT ACRS SE OK WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN POSITION EXPECTED TODAY.
WK VORT KICKED OFF NMRS RW/TSTMS EARLY THIS MRNG WITH ACTIVITY THINNING
OUT ATTM. SVR WX IN FTW AREA SO TOR WATCH REMAINS THIS AM FOR EAST TX.
SVR WX PARAMETERS SHAPING UP ON RUC FOR MID AFTN WITH LI VALUES -9
PROGGED ACRS EAST TX AND K INDEX OF 40 AND TT OF 56 ALONG WITH DRIER
AIR MOVG IN FM S TX AT MID LVLS. AS LOW LVL WINDS INCREASE FM SOUTH
IN RESPONSE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVR AZ/NM BORDER...ALREADY
GOOD HELICITY VALUES INCREASE TO 250 TO 300 BY MID AFTN IN NW CWA WITH
TIGHT MSTR CONV AND WAA ALONG FNT. AS MASSIVE PVA SLINGS ACRS BASE OF
DEEP TROF TONIGHT...LIFT WILL CAUSE EXPLOSIVE TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACRS MOST
OF CWA. VRY LARGE HAIL THREAT IN ADDITION TO TOR POTENTIAL AS STG UPR
DIFFLUENT PATTERN INDICATED WITH SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH LOW WET BULB
ZEROES OF 9-1^0K FT. TRAINING OF CELLS MAY ALSO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL
GIVEN MEANDERING OF SFC FNT.

VII

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>072-LAZ001>003-010-011-017-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-
108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-211645-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
955 AM CDT MON OCT 21 1996

A TORNADO WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTHEAST AND EAST
TEXAS UNTIL 100 PM CDT. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES WAS TRIGGERING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS LATE THIS MORNING.

THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST
BRINGING THE THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER EAST INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS. SOME OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL... DAMAGING
WINDS... AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

SOME SEVERE WEATHER HAS OCCURRED WEST AND SOUTH OF THE DALLAS/FORT
WORTH AREA THIS MORNING...AND THE THUNDERSTORMS RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS
SEVERE WEATHER WILL MOVE EAST INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. RESIDENTS OF NORTHEAST AND EAST TEXAS SHOULD KEEP ALERT OF
THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION AND BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE WEATHER BY
EARLY AFTERNOON.

3

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-211600-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1000 AM CDT SUN OCT 20 1996

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMED ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
IN UNSTABLE AIR. THIS AIR WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE CONSIDERABLY
PROVIDING FOR CONTINUED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW
OF WHICH COULD BECOME SEVERE. A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL SOUTH FLOW. MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH SEVERE
WEATHER LIKELY TONIGHT. THIS STRONG LOW LEVEL INFLOW COMBINED WITH AN
OVERALL FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE INDICATES A VERY GOOD POTENTIAL
FOR TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL ALSO APPEARS TO BE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT.

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...
AMD STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE REQUIRED POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS MIDDAY ACROSS
EAST TEXAS...AND WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BY THIS EVENING. WITH ACTIVITY
SHIFTING EASTWARD TONIGHT...ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED ACROSS
NORTH LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AND
POSSIBLY EVEN INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

VII

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-211600-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...CORRECTED DAY AND DATE...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1000 AM CDT MON OCT 21 1996

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMED ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
IN UNSTABLE AIR. THIS AIR WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE CONSIDERABLY
PROVIDING FOR CONTINUED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW
OF WHICH COULD BECOME SEVERE. A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL SOUTH FLOW. MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH SEVERE
WEATHER LIKELY TONIGHT. THIS STRONG LOW LEVEL INFLOW COMBINED WITH AN
OVERALL FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE INDICATES A VERY GOOD POTENTIAL
FOR TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL ALSO APPEARS TO BE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT.

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...
AMD STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE REQUIRED POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS MIDDAY ACROSS
EAST TEXAS...AND WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BY THIS EVENING. WITH ACTIVITY
SHIFTING EASTWARD TONIGHT...ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED ACROSS
NORTH LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AND
POSSIBLY EVEN INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

VII