Severe Thunderstorm Warning 435, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
400 PM CDT MON OCT 21 1996

COMPLEX OF SVR TSTMS ACRS NE TX AND EXTREME SE OK/SW AR PRODUCING SVRL
HAIL RPTS AND RADAR SHOWING INCREASING CELL ROTATIONS. MORNING HODOGRAPH
ANALYSIS REVEALED INCREASING HELICITY ADDING IN ADJUSTMENTS FOR INCREASED
WIND FIELDS. THIS PLUS RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES ETA WITH BEST SOLN. NGM
CONCENTRATED WX ALONG FNT AND THAT NOT THE CASE WITH FNT NR A PRX TO
DEQ LINE. ALL MODELS AGREE ON BRINGING FNT INTO NW LA ON TUE MRNG.
SYSTEM LIKELY TO TRANSFORM FM A HAILER WITH MESOS TO MORE OF A WIND
EVENT AFT MIDNIGHT AS SPLIT JET FLOW MERGES AND LOSES EXTREME UPR
DIFFLUENCE. LATE EVE TO MIDNIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE HEART OF THE ACTION
WITH RUC AND ETA HAVING HELICITIES OVR 300 ACRS MUCH OF AREA WITH NGM
AND AVN STILL WELL OVR 200. FLOODING A THREAT WITH TRAINING CELLS AND
SOME BLINDING RAINFALL INDICATED BY AN ASOS RPT IN TXK OF .90 INCHES
IN 9 MINUTES! 850 MSTR INDICATES JUST A FEW HOURS OF WRAPAROUND EARLY
TUE BEHIND FNT FOLLOWED BY RAPID CLRG. MODELS AGREE ON TUE HIGH IN
PRE-FNTL EARLY MRNG. NGM HAS LESS PUSH WITH FNT HENCE WRMR TEMPS TUE
WITH MORE AGREEMENT AFTER 1ST PERIOD. COLD AIR STILL SHALLOW AS WITH
PREVIOUS FNTS THIS FALL WITH TEMPS MODERATING BY THU.

SHV 58/58/37/68  7500           MLU 64/67/42/65  6700

VII